China: price control risks threaten equities, say HSBC and Nomura

飞雪寒冰

If history is any guide - and it often isn’t - the threat of food price controls in China is a sell signal for equity investors. Steven Sun of HSBC has looked at what happened to Chinese stocks when price controls were last imposed, in 2008. And he doesn’t like what he sees - equities plunged 14 per cent in the three months after food price controls started and 22 per cent in the three months after coal price controls were introduced. This time a 10-15 per cent decline is likely, Sun says. That may not sound like a lot, but the volatile Chinese market has a tendency to overshoot such targets. Maybe this is what HSBC’s own chief executive meant when he said earlier this month that emerging markets were in for a bumpy ride. “The risk of price controls is looming large”, says Sun’s report. He warns that the central bank is “behind the curve” in terms of policy actions because of its pro-growth bias and divergent views among ministries. QE2 could force price controls before the Chinese New Year, when shoppers tend to splurge. HSBC forecasts that Hang Seng at 22,000 at the year-end (versus 23,214 today) and the Shanghai Composite at 2,800 (versus 2,838.9 today). The only consolation for investors is that Sun’s forecast would appear to include at least some of the 11-per-cent fall already seen in Shanghai in the past week. The report follows closely another gloom note by Sun earlier this week, in which he warned - as he does here - that QE2 “is fuelling inflation and asset bubbles in emerging markets”. Meanwhile, Nomura, another long-term bull on China, has also turned bearish in the face of the growing threat of inflation. Sean Darby, the widely-respected equity strategist, writes: 'The likelihood of a reintroduction of price controls on food is growing. The recent run-up in agriculture prices worldwide and signs of hoarding appear to have pushed the authorities to reconsider draconian measures. Coupled with rationing of electricity supply and rising demand for diesel, inflationary pressures are becoming far more pronounced. While authorities are resisting the call for tightening, rising commodity prices and potential weather disruptions are likely to be unfavourable.'

如果历史可以借鉴（而它往往做不到），那么中国有可能施行食品价格管控，对于股票投资者而言就是一个卖出信号。汇丰银行(HSBC)的孙瑜(Steven Sun)研究了一下2008年上一次施行价格管控时中国股Shi的反应。而他不喜欢自己的发现：股Shi在启动食品价格管控后的3个月内下跌14%，在启动煤炭价格管控后的3个月内下跌22%。孙瑜表示，这一次很有可能下跌10-15%。可能这听上去不算什么，但动荡的中国股Shi往往会超出这些目标。或许这正是汇丰首席执行官在本月早些时候宣称新兴市场将出现震荡时的涵义。

飞雪寒冰

孙瑜在报告中表示：“价格管控的风险正逐渐显现。”他警告称，由于中国央行采取偏向增长的姿态，加之各部委之间看法分歧，中国央行在采取政策行动方面“滞后于曲线”。美联储的二次定量宽松可能会迫使中国在农历新年的消费热潮出现之前采取价格管控措施。


汇丰预测，年底香港恒生指数会在22000点（昨日收于23214点），而上证指数会在2800点（昨日收2838.9点）。对投资者而言，唯一的安慰是，孙瑜的预测似乎至少包括了上证指数过去一周已经跌去的11%中的一部分。


上述报告紧随着孙瑜本周早些时候发表的另一份悲观的报告。他在其中警告称，二次定量宽松“正在加剧新兴市场的通胀和资产泡沫”。


与此同时，同样长期看涨中国股Shi的野村证券(Nomura)，也在不断抬头的通胀风险面前转为看跌。野村广受尊敬的股票策略师戴仕文(Sean Darby)写道：


“再次引入食品价格管控的可能性在逐渐增加。最近全球农产品价格的飙升和囤积迹象，似乎已促使政府重新考虑采取严厉的措施。加上定量供电，以及柴油需求的上升，通胀压力正变得日益显著。尽管政府仍在DIZHI收紧政策的呼吁，但大宗商品价格的持续上涨和潜在的恶劣天气都有可能不利于他们。”