京藏高速拥堵的背后

飞雪寒冰

China may be the world’s largest car market, but the 100km traffic snarl-up that has blocked the Beijing-Tibet expressway for more than a week was not caused by a build-up of passenger traffic. The real culprit was heavy freight trucks carrying coal from inland provinces to coastal ports.
中国或许是全球最大的汽车市场，但发生在京藏高速公路上，绵延上百公里、持续一周多的交通拥堵并不是客运流量增多引起的，真正的祸首是从内陆省份往沿海港口运煤的重型货车。

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The biggest global energy consumer, according to the International Energy Agency, China’s needs have grown so fast that the infrastructure cannot keep pace.
根据国际能源机构(IEA)的数据，中国已是全球最大的能源消费国。中国能源需求的增长如此迅速，以致基础设施建设跟不上步伐。

Coal, which fuels 70 per cent of the country’s electricity, is notoriously hard to transport from the inland provinces in which it is mined to the southern and eastern industrial belts where it is most needed.
中国70%的电力是靠煤炭发电的。从采掘煤炭的内陆省份，往最需要煤炭的华南及华东工业区运输煤炭，是出了名的困难。

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The traffic jam originated in Inner Mongolia, a top coal producer, and stretches towards Qinhuangdao, the port where coal is shipped to power plants in the south.
这次交通拥堵从中国第一产煤大省内蒙古绵延至秦皇岛，煤炭被运到这个港口后，会改用船运往南方的发电厂。

Although road construction contributed to the gridlock, the jam – which started on August 14 – only went one way: west to east.
虽然道路施工是造成这次交通拥堵的部分原因，但从8月14日开始的拥堵只出现在一个方向上：从西向东。

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While transporting coal by truck costs more than twice as much as shipping it by rail, China’s coal producers have few other options as rail freight capacity is overloaded.
用货车运煤的成本是铁路运输费用的两倍以上，但由于中国铁路运力已经超负荷，煤炭生产商们别无选择。

Coal trucks have a history of clogging the roads. This summer traffic was jammed for months on that same highway, which runs through the Inner Mongolian capital Hohhot.
运煤货车造成道路拥堵的现象由来已久。今年夏季，京藏高速公路有好几个月的时间都处于拥堵的状态。这条高速公路途经内蒙古省会呼和浩特市。

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China has poured money into aggressive road and rail expansion programmes, including more high-speed railways to ease passenger traffic on existing lines.
中国已投入重金大力扩建公路和铁路，包括高速铁路，以缓解现有铁路的客运紧张状况。

“Coal transport is a high priority for the Ministry of Railways, probably their key performance indicator,” said Martin Joerss, head of McKinsey’s transportation practice in greater China.
“煤炭运输是中国铁道部工作的重中之重，或许也是他们的关键绩效指标。”麦肯锡(McKinsey)大中华区运输咨询业务负责人尤茂庭(Martin Joerss)表示。

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But the expansion is not happening fast enough. “The railway transportation bottleneck has not yet been fundamentally resolved,” the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association said.
但路还是修得不够快。“铁路运输瓶颈迄今未得到根本解决。”中国煤炭运销协会(CCTD)表示。

China’s railways carried some 1.2bn tonnes of coal in the first seven months of this year, up 17 per cent from the same period last year.
今年前7个月，中国铁路的煤炭运输量约为12亿吨，比去年同期增长17%。

That is about 60 per cent of total coal movements during that time, according to official data.
根据官方数据，这约占同期内全国煤炭总运输量的60%。

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Several of China’s larger coal companies have bought stakes in railway operators to ensure that their coal shipments get priority.
中国一些大型煤炭公司都持有铁路运营公司的股票，以确保本公司的煤炭能够得到优先运输。

“Even if you produce enough coal to feed all of China, but you can’t transport it to the customer by railway, the market will still be tight and prices will still be high,” said Yongtao Shi, analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“就算你生产的煤炭足够满足全中国的需求，但你无法通过铁路把它们运到客户那里，那么市场仍会继续吃紧，价格也会继续高企。”美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的分析师施永涛表示。

China’s coal demand is set to rise by more than 200m tonnes next year, while the primary coal railway from the inland provinces to the coast is adding just 30m tonnes of capacity.
明年中国煤炭需求将增加2亿吨以上，而从内陆省份通往沿海地区的主要运煤铁路的运力仅会增加3000万吨。