Thabo Mbeki's fall

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Sep 21st 2008 | JOHANNESBURG
From Economist.com

South Africa’s president quits


IT HAS been a spectacularly bad year for Thabo Mbeki, the president of South Africa. He suffered a humiliating defeat in December, when the ruling African National Congress (ANC) elected Jacob Zuma—the country’s former deputy president whom Mr Mbeki sacked in 2005—to take over as the party’s head. Now the ANC has decided to recall Mr Mbeki, cutting short his term as the country’s president. Mr Mbeki was supposed to remain in place until the general election, which is expected in April 2009.

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The decision comes after a court ruled this month that charges against Mr Zuma, which include corruption and fraud, were invalid because proper procedures had not been followed. More damaging was the judge’s belief that Mr Mbeki and some of his ministers may have exerted political influence over the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) in the case of Mr Zuma’s prosecution. Both Mr Mbeki and the NPA say that the allegation is nonsense. But the judge’s words prompted some of Mr Zuma’s supporters, who say there is a conspiracy to prevent their man from becoming president, to call for Mr Mbeki’s head.

Mr Zuma himself argued that Mr Mbeki should be allowed to stay and that the ruling party should rebuild unity ahead of next year’s election. But the ANC’s National Executive Committee decided he had to go. Mr Mbeki has been in office for nearly a decade and has been accused of arrogance, aloofness and centralising power. His many rivals have coalesced around Mr Zuma.

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Mr Mbeki was due to address the country on Sunday September 21st. Several ministers loyal to Mr Mbeki may choose to resign, but Trevor Manuel, the well-respected finance minister, has already said that he would stay. Parliament would elect Mr Mbeki’s successor and Kgalema Motlanthe, an ally of Mr Zuma and the deputy leader of the party, is now touted as the likely caretaker. Mr Zuma, who has kept a low profile in the past few days, will wait until the election next year to seek his own rise to the top job. None in the ruling party seems keen on an early general election, given the current infighting. It is certain to win, but the opposition, which has won back the city of Cape Town, could wrest at least the Western Cape province from the ruling party. More voters, disheartened by the ANC’s infighting and Mr Mbeki’s ousting, may also decide to stay at home on election day.

The local press is awash with rumours that supporters of Mr Mbeki, led by the defence minister, Mosiuoa Lekota, may leave to form a new party to contest next year’s election. If Mr Mbeki’s departure becomes an all-out purge of those close to him, this may happen. But the ANC’s leaders are probably strong enough to resist firebrands such as Julius Malema, the leader of the party’s Youth League and a strident supporter of Mr Zuma, and so should be able to keep the party together for now.

What will happen to the corruption and fraud charges against Mr Zuma is unclear. The new ANC leadership wants the whole thing dropped, arguing he has been treated unfairly. Although the NPA has said that it intends to appeal the court ruling which declared the charges invalid on a technicality, papers have not been filed yet. The next few months will indicate whether the ruling party’s new leaders are able to resist the temptation of doing exactly what they accuse Mr Mbeki of: meddling with the prosecution for political ends.