Enter the stone manager

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Sep 11th 2008 | BERLIN
From The Economist print edition

The Social Democrats try to save themselves with a change of leadership


FAINT from loss of support, Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) has started its recovery. So claimed Frank-Walter Steinmeier on September 7th, as he added his party’s nomination for the chancellorship to his day jobs of foreign minister and vice-chancellor in the “grand coalition”. He will challenge Angela Merkel in the September 2009 election. This is not the opening shot of a drawn-out campaign, he insisted. But it will be hard for the SPD and Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to think about much else.

Mr Steinmeier’s nomination was expected, if not so soon. More surprising was the departure of Kurt Beck as SPD chairman. He said he was a victim of “deliberate disinformation”. Franz Müntefering, who has held the job before, will be the SPD’s fifth leader in as many years. But the new team will bring new credibility. Mr Müntefering left the vice-chancellorship last year to care for his sick wife, who has since died. A rousing orator, he can make a plea for better health policy seem like a call to arms. Mr Steinmeier, known as the “grey efficiency”, lacks such talent. He was chief of staff to Ms Merkel’s predecessor as chancellor, Gerhard Schröder. Although this will be his first-ever election campaign, he is Germany’s second most-popular politician after Ms Merkel, and has been honing his skills in the Brandenburg constituency chosen for him by the SPD.

Simply not being Mr Beck will be a help. Mr Beck’s biggest mistake was to change his mind over whether to co-operate in western Germany with the Left Party. At first he said no. But after the Left won enough votes in January in Hesse to hold the balance of power, he said yes. Hesse’s SPD plans to take power in the state with a minority coalition backed by the Left Party. Mr Steinmeier and Mr Müntefering cannot stop this. But voters are more likely to believe them when they rule out working with the Left at federal level.

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Even so, they will find it hard to resolve the SPD’s two big problems: a split between its left and reformist wings, and the broader challenge of the Left Party. Both defend Mr Schröder’s Agenda 2010 reforms, which have cut unemployment but alienated core voters and fuelled the Left Party’s rise. Their elevation suggests the SPD will now tack to the centre. But how to soothe its own left? After the leadership shuffle the Left Party gleefully offered disgruntled SPD supporters “asylum”.

For now, the SPD is striving for unity. Stop dwelling on Agenda 2010, urged Mr Müntefering; look forward instead. A draft programme uses buzzwords that resonate with moderates (Germany must become more innovative) while suggesting higher taxes for the rich and easier retirement rules for those in strenuous jobs. It appeals to the middle class by proposing free education from crèche to university. Mr Müntefering is a reformer, but also an advocate of minimum wages. He “could always talk to trade unions”, and Mr Steinmeier is “wise enough” to do so too, says Ursula Engelen-Kefer, a senior party member. The message is: we are socially minded but, unlike the Left Party, not economically scary.

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Despite Mr Steinmeier’s assurances, the focus will now shift from governing to electioneering. The coalition has unfinished business, including reforms of inheritance tax. But it is now like a dinner party where the conversation has run out yet the guests have to stay for dessert. Mr Steinmeier and Ms Merkel have already clashed on foreign policy. In dealing with Russia and China, he prefers quiet diplomacy to her “display-window politics”. Such disputes will now acquire a new edge.

The change of leadership is paying dividends: support for the SPD has jumped four points to 26%, says Forsa, a polling firm. One test will be Bavaria’s election on September 28th. The SPD cannot win, but a respectable loss would help. With Mr Steinmeier as candidate, the SPD may now narrow the gap with the CDU. Yet if it does so in 2009, the two parties could end up in another unloved grand coalition.