The Russians are here

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Sep 11th 2008 | CARACAS
From The Economist print edition

Ruling the waves


PRESIDENT Hugo Chávez has long seen his leftist “Bolivarian” revolution in Venezuela as part of a global struggle against a world-order dominated by American imperialism. So the announcement this week that the Russian navy is to conduct joint exercises with Venezuela in the Caribbean later this year is something of a diplomatic coup. It is also a worry for many Venezuelans, who would rather their country avoid big-power politics.

The precise dates have yet to be fixed. But Russia has confirmed that it will be sending the flagship of its Baltic fleet, the nuclear-powered cruiser Peter the Great. In all, there will be four Russian ships, with a combined crew of 1,000, the Venezuelans say. Additionally, an unspecified number of aircraft, designed for anti-submarine warfare, will be stationed temporarily at a Venezuelan air base. Given that the United States in April revived its Fourth Fleet, disbanded since 1950, to patrol the area, Mr Chávez has a motive. So, in the timing of the announcement, do the Russians, who this week sent two bombers to Venezuela on a training mission and who are angered that the United States has just dispatched warships to deliver aid to Georgia.

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Venezuela has already spent over $4 billion on Russian weaponry. This includes dozens of helicopters, 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles and 24 Sukhoi-30 fighter-bombers—among the world’s most sophisticated combat aircraft. On his latest arms-buying trip to Moscow, in July, Mr Chávez said Venezuela would “raise flags, bang drums and sing songs” for the Russian fleet. Russia, he said, was a “strategic ally” and shared “the same vision of the world”.

He was also quoted (though he later denied it) as offering military bases. With Russia on the lookout for opportunities to poke Uncle Sam in the eye, and Venezuela eager to acquire powerful friends, this is a “perfect alliance”, says one Venezuelan foreign-affairs specialist. “Venezuela knows that under the wing of the Russians, it will be easier to manoeuvre vis-à-vis the United States and [its ally] Colombia.” Or as Mr Chávez puts it, “Go ahead and squeal, Yankees.”

The public response from Washington has been a barely-stifled yawn. The State Department noted that if the Russians were indeed coming, then “they found a few ships that can make it that far.” This is a far cry from the 1962 missile crisis, involving the Soviet Union and Cuba. But by using the bargaining power of Venezuelan oil, Mr Chávez is certainly forging the anti-Washington alliance he dreams of.

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The planning for these exercises clearly predates the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Georgia. But despite the disingenuous claim by the Kremlin that the manoeuvres were “not aimed at any third country”, it is equally clear that they form part of a global chess-game. Throw Venezuela’s close ally Iran into the mix, and the region’s politics suddenly start to look a lot more complicated. Mr Chávez’s was one of the few governments to give full support to Russia’s invasion of Georgia. He also backs the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Not to mention Iran’s right to otherwise suspect nuclear technology. Like it or not, the next man in the White House will need to look south.