CHINA IS TOP EXPORT CUSTOMER FOR JAPAN

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By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Friday, August 22, 2008
  

Mainland China overtook the US as Japan's largest export destination for the first time last month, underlining the growing importance of Chinese demand to the world's second-largest economy.

Exports to China, which have risen in each of the last 38 months, expanded by 16.8 per cent in July to their highest level since the Japanese government began compiling statistics in 1950.

At the same time, exports to the US declined by 11.5 per cent, marking the 11th consecutive monthly drop. Overall, shipments rose by 8.1 per cent by value, after falling in June for the first time since 2003, the finance ministry said.

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Japanese companies such as Toyota, Honda Motor and Komatsu have recently identified an increasing reliance on China and other emerging markets for sales growth as the US economy slows. Honda last month announced double-digit increases in the volume of China sales in the three months to June, compared with a 5 per cent fall in the US.

However, the export growth will provide little cheer to policymakers, faced with rising input costs and an uncertain outlook in the economies of Japan's main trading partners.

Japan's July trade surplus suffered an unexpectedly large decline of 86.6 per cent to Y91.1bn because of an 18.2 per cent surge in imports by value. The market forecast was for a trade surplus in July of more than Y200bn.

The fall, the fifth monthly decline in a row, reflected a near 70 per cent rise in the price of crude oil and a more than doubling of the price of coal.

Many analysts expect exports to fall again in coming months as the slowdown in western economies begins to have an impact on demand in emerging economies such as China.

“It is difficult to believe that Japan will be able to maintain the kind of growth in exports that it saw in July. I think there is a higher chance of a slowdown,” said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.