阴霾中的阳光

飞雪寒冰

本田汽车(Honda)上周公布，其季度利润意外增长8%，这表明，日本汽车厂商可能未受汽车行业低迷的影响。
  Honda’s surprise 8 per cent quarterly profit increase, announced last week, suggested that Japanese automakers might be immune from the sector’s downturn.

   
然而，本田没有收回其全年盈利将下降18%的悲观预期，该公司警告投资者，更糟糕的时期即将到来。该公司将其营运利润预期和美国市场销量预期分别调降3%和1.4%。
But instead of retracting its gloomy full-year projection for an 18 per cent earnings fall, Honda warned investors of worse to come. It cut its operating profit forecast by 3 per cent and its global and US sales-volume projections by 1.4 per cent apiece.

飞雪寒冰

相对于其国内最大竞争对手，日本第二大汽车制造商本田的状况相对较好。
Honda, Japan’s second-biggest automaker, is in better shape than its largest domestic rivals.

   
分析人士表示，分别将于8月7日和本周五公布第一财季业绩的丰田汽车(Toyota)和日产(Nissan)可能会出现两位数的利润降幅。
Analysts say Toyota, which reports earnings for its fiscal first quarter on August 7, and Nissan, which reports on Friday, is likely to have suffered double-digit profit declines.

   
这两家公司的大型卡车和多功能运动型汽车(SUV)产量都高于本田，在汽油价格不断飙升的情况下，这成为了一个巨大缺陷。
Both make more big trucks and sport utility vehicles than Honda – a big handicap given the soaring cost of petrol.

飞雪寒冰

然而，本田的悲观态度反映了钢材及其它原材料成本不断飙升，以及关键市场需求的日渐疲软。本田执行副总裁近藤浩一(Koichi Kondo)表示，美国市场的“乐观”前景是今年汽车销量将达到1400万至1450万辆，多数汽车制造商最初的预测为1600万辆以上。美国市场占本田汽车销量的近一半。
However, Honda’s pessimism reflects the soaring cost of steel and other raw materials as well as crumbling demand in key markets. Koichi Kondo, executive vice-president, said a “hopeful” scenario for the US, where Honda sells almost half its cars, would see 14m-14.5m vehicle sales industry-wide this year, compared with the more than 16m that most carmakers had initially forecast.

   
对于本田而言，西欧市场也表现出了恐慌气氛，今年第一季度西欧销量下滑速度是美国市场的3倍。
Western Europe is also in a funk – for Honda, sales there in the first quarter fell three times faster than they did in the US.

   
与福特汽车(Ford)创纪录的87亿美元亏损形成鲜明对比的是，日本三大汽车制造商仍将实现利润。但形势的恶化迫使它们做出了一些战略上的变化。
In striking contrast to Ford’s record $8.7bn loss, all three Japanese giants will still make money. But the deterioration has nonetheless forced some strategic second-guessing.

飞雪寒冰

一个问题在于，日本一直在争夺皮卡和SUV市场份额方面追赶其美国竞争对手，这个市场的利润率很高，过去一直是美国汽车制造商的生命线，如今每加仑4美元的汽油价格，迫使许多美国人减少了对这类车型的需求。
One problem is that the Japanese have been chasing their US rivals into the market for pick-ups and SUVs, which command high profit margins and were Detroit’s life blood before $4-a-gallon petrol forced many Americans to downsize.

   
“当时，填补其生产线的不足是一个合理的决定，”汽车市场研究机构CSM Worldwide分析师横井博文(Hirofumi Yokoi)表示，“但如今，这种做法对它们不利。”
“At the time it was a rational decision to fill a gap in their product line,” says Hirofumi Yokoi, analyst at CSM Worldwide, a car market research group. “Now it’s working against them.”

   
Tundra皮卡销量的低迷，导致丰田6月美国销量下降了五分之一，降幅高于竞争对手通用汽车(General Motors)。尽管丰田紧凑型车雅力士(Yaris)和汽油电力混合动力汽车普锐斯(Prius)等颇受欢迎的小型汽车供不应求，但卡车和SUV销量出现了大幅下滑。
Crumbling sales of Tundra pick-up trucks helped drag Toyota’s US sales down by a fifth in June, a sharper decline than at rival General Motors. Truck and SUV sales plunged even as Toyota’s capacity to build popular small cars such as the compact Yaris and petrol-electric hybrid Prius has fallen behind demand.

飞雪寒冰

如今，丰田正努力让自己走上正轨。该公司本月表示，将重新设计密西西比在建的一家组装厂，以生产普锐斯，而非Highlander中型SUV。
Toyota is now trying to wrench itself back on course. It said this month it would redesign an assembly plant under construction in Mississippi to build Priuses instead of Highlander mid-size SUVs.

   
对于日本汽车厂商而言，最好的消息是，其竞争对手更为严重的问题意味着，短期的伤痛可能会转化为长期的市场份额的提升，尤其是在油价持续高企的情况下。
The best news for Japanese automakers is that their rivals’ much deeper problems mean the short-term pain could translate into long-term gains in market share particularly if oil prices remain high.

   
今年上半年，丰田的全球汽车销量远远领先于通用汽车，这令丰田有望无可争议地成为全球头号汽车制造商。
Toyota pulled well ahead of GM in global vehicle sales in the first half of 2008, putting it on track to become the world’s undisputed number-one carmaker.

   
日本汽车厂商还在缩短与西方汽车厂商在中国等新兴市场的差距，相对于通用汽车、大众汽车(Volkswagen)和其它西方汽车厂商，日本汽车厂商在新兴市场起步较晚。
Japanese carmakers are also closing the gap in emerging markets such as China, where they were slow off the mark compared with GM, Volkswagen and others.

   
一个重大的未知因素是汇率，数月以来，汇率因素一直不利于日本汽车厂商。今年3月，日元兑美元汇率飙升至12年高点，这大大降低了日本汽车厂商以本币计价的海外销售额。
A major wild card is foreign exchange rates, which have been working against Japanese producers for months. The yen soared to a 12-year high versus the dollar in March, sharply reducing the value of overseas sales in home currency terms.

飞雪寒冰

然而，展望未来，日元可能会再次成为日本汽车厂商的盟友。日本厂商都已根据构成其盈利预测基础的汇率预期，进行了大幅调整，其中多数厂商目前预计，今年日元兑美元平均汇率今将处于100日元左右的水平。
Looking ahead, however, the yen could again become an ally for Japanese producers. They have all made sharp adjustments to the rate expectations that form the basis for their earnings forecasts, with most now expecting the yen to trade at around Y100 to the dollar on average this year.

   
然而，日元汇率正从3月高点稳步下滑，目前日元兑美元汇率为107日元左右。
But the currency has dropped steadily from its March high and its now trading around Y107 to the dollar.

   
如果日元继续贬值，那么日本汽车厂商将更为容易地超越其悲观预测。
If the downtrend persists, carmakers will find it much easier to beat their pessimistic projections.