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发表于 2005-7-22 17:46:58
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博弈论Game Theory<br /> A decision-making approach based on the assumption <br /> of actor rationality in a situation of <br /> competition. Each actor tries to maximize gains or <br /> minimize losses under conditions of uncertainty <br /> and incomplete information, which requires each <br /> actor to rank order preferences, estimate <br /> probabilities, and try to discern what the other <br /> actor is going to do. In a two-person zero-sum <br /> game, what one actor wins the other loses; if A <br /> wins, 5, B loses 5, and the sum is zero. In a <br /> two-person non-zero or variable sum game, gains <br /> and losses are not necessarily equal; it is <br /> possible that both sides may gain. This is <br /> sometimes referred to as a positive-sum game. In <br /> some games, both parties can lose, and by <br /> different amounts or to a different degree. <br /> So-called n-person games include more than two <br /> actors or sides. Game theory has contributed to <br /> the development of models of deterrence and arms <br /> race spirals, but it is also the basis for work <br /> concerning the question of how collaboration among <br /> competitive states in an anarchic world can be <br /> achieved: The central problem is that the rational <br /> decision for an individual actor such as a state <br /> may be to "defect" and go it alone as opposed to <br /> taking a chance on collaboration with another <br /> state actor. Dealing with this problem is a <br /> central concern of much of the literature on <br /> international regimes, regional integration, and <br /> conflict resolution. <p> (Viotti, P. and M. Kauppi, (eds.). 1987. <br /> International Relations Theory. Macmillan <br /> Publishing Company, New York).</p> |
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