Japan's disaster

飞雪寒冰

Physically, Japan was probably better prepared for last week’s earthquake and tsunami than almost any other country, though the human toll has been horrific and the nuclear consequences scary. Yet, economically, Japan could hardly have been in a worse position.
从客观能力上讲，日本大概比几乎其它任何一个国家都能更好地应对上周的地震和海啸，尽管人员伤亡惨重，核事故的后果也相当可怖。但从经济上讲，日本的情况几乎糟糕到极点。

First, the disaster has pushed up the value of an already overvalued yen, either because investors and insurers are bringing money home or because others are betting that they will. Exporters dealing with power cuts and flooded factories will also have to contend with less competitive prices for their products.
首先，灾难推高了本已高估的日元汇率，这或者是因为投资者和保险公司都在把资金汇回国内，或者是别人在押注他们会这么做。遭遇停电和工厂被淹的出口商，还将不得不面对其产品价格竞争力下降的局面。

飞雪寒冰

Second, the Bank of Japan’s ability to help the economy is limited. New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points after the Christchurch earthquake but Japan’s interest rates are already at zero. The BoJ could (and indeed might) increase its asset purchases and intervene to stop the yen strengthening too much, though the last time it tried the latter it did not work for long.
其次，日本央行(BoJ)挽救经济的能力有限。新西兰基督城地震过后，新西兰央行降息50个基点，但日本利率已经为零。日本央行可能（实际上也会）增加其资产购买，并出手干预汇市，以防日元升值太多，尽管它上一次试验后一种手段时，效果持续时间不长。

Third, the government will need to rebuild devastated areas. As a guide, it spent about 3 per cent of gross domestic product after the Kobe earthquake in 1995. In theory, this should give Japan’s deflationary economy a helpful short-term jolt (though any increase in GDP would be from replacing lost assets, so should not be overemphasised). Yet Japan is already the most indebted state in the developed world with gross debt of Y5.2m per person. The government needs to be spending less, not more.
第三，日本政府将需要重建灾区。1995年神户地震过后，日本政府拿出了国内生产总值(GDP)的3%。从理论上讲，这应该会对日本处于通缩的经济带来一次有用的短期刺激（尽管GDP的任何增长都将来自替换损失的资产，因此不应过分强调）。但日本已经是发达世界中负债最重的国家，平均每位国民背负着520万日元的总债务。日本政府应减少、而非增加开支。

飞雪寒冰

All is not lost, though. The emergency should at least prompt Japan’s warring politicians to set aside their differences and write a budget. And, because Japan sells 94.5 per cent of its debt domestically, the contagion risks should be limited; it does not matter much whether the rest of the world panics about its fiscal problems so long as Japanese investors do not. Japan can overcome this terrible tragedy but it needs economic, political and social solidarity to do so.


但日本还有一线希望。这个非常事件至少会促使日本敌对的政界人士暂搁分歧，合力出台一份预算。此外，由于日本94.5%的国债出售给国内投资者，蔓延风险应该有限；只要日本投资者不对本国的财政状况感到恐慌，世界上其它地区是否恐慌并不重要。日本能够度过这场可怕的悲剧，但它必须在经济、政治和社会层面都团结起来。

飞雪寒冰

All is not lost, though. The emergency should at least prompt Japan’s warring politicians to set aside their differences and write a budget. And, because Japan sells 94.5 per cent of its debt domestically, the contagion risks should be limited; it does not matter much whether the rest of the world panics about its fiscal problems so long as Japanese investors do not. Japan can overcome this terrible tragedy but it needs economic, political and social solidarity to do so.


但日本还有一线希望。这个非常事件至少会促使日本敌对的政界人士暂搁分歧，合力出台一份预算。此外，由于日本94.5%的国债出售给国内投资者，蔓延风险应该有限；只要日本投资者不对本国的财政状况感到恐慌，世界上其它地区是否恐慌并不重要。日本能够度过这场可怕的悲剧，但它必须在经济、政治和社会层面都团结起来。