Arab freedom is worth a short shock

飞雪寒冰

We end, then, where we began, with a high level of uncertainty. We know that the political upheaval is highly significant, probably a historic watershed. We know, too, that the oil shock may be quite important, albeit very far from catastrophic and possibly rather brief. Overall, then, the long-run political implications seem much more significant than the economic ones. But such optimism about the short-term economic effects depends, in part, on the assumption that the further spread of unrest is now contained. That would also depend on the continuation of the bad old bargain: repression as the price for stability in oil supply. It is an attractive bargain to consumers. But is it morally desirable or even politically sustainable in the long run?


由此，我们带着高度不确定性回到开始的地方。我们知道，这场政治动荡意义重大，很可能是一个历史性分水岭。我们也知道，石油危机可能相当重要，尽管它远非一场灾难，而且可能是短暂的。总体而言，长期政治影响似乎远比经济影响重大。但是，围绕短期经济影响的乐观情绪，在一定程度上取决于一个假设，即这场动荡的进一步蔓延已得到遏制。这也将取决于那个古老的糟糕契约的继续：压迫是石油供应稳定的代价。对于消费者而言，这一契约颇具吸引力。但它在道德上是否可取，或者在政治上是否长期可持续呢？