苏丹石油如何“分家”？

飞雪寒冰

Dividing up Sudan’s oil industry between north and south is emerging as a challenge akin to separating conjoined twins, a fact that has heavily invested Chinese interests uneasy as the country prepares to split.
如何在南北苏丹之间分割苏丹石油产业？这一挑战无异于分离一对连体婴儿。随着该国即将一分为二，这一事实让在这里投入重资的中国利益相关方深感不安。

Final results released on Monday showed that nearly 99 per cent of 3.9m southern voters cast ballots for separation from the Arab-led and Muslim north in January’s referendum.
南部苏丹1月份举行了全民公投，而周一公布的最终结果显示，南部390万选民中，近99%的人投票支持从由阿拉伯人领导、信奉伊斯兰教的北部地区分离。

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The outcome should mean that an independent south Sudan will emerge on July 9, following five decades of intermittent civil war.
这一结果意味着，在经过长达50年时断时续的内战后，南苏丹将于7月9日宣布独立。

Among many issues the north and south have to negotiate before then – such as citizenship rights and the destiny of their mutual currency – oil is one of the trickiest. An oil wealth-sharing deal included in a 2005 peace agreement is due to expire in July.
在此之前，南北双方必须就许多问题进行协商，例如公民权利以及共同货币的未来等等。而其中最棘手的问题之一便是石油。根据2005年签署的和平协议，南北双方平分石油收益，而此份协议将于今年7月份到期。

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Revenues from oil production, estimated at 500,000 barrels a day, are critical for both the north and south. Both sides must decide how to divide up three producing blocks that straddle the border, and manage contracts, infrastructure, staff, oil debt and tax systems.
石油生产收入对于南北方而言都至关重要——苏丹石油日产量估计为50万桶。两方都必须决定，如何分割横跨边境的3个产油区，以及如何处置合约、基础设施、员工、石油债务和税收体系。

China’s state oil company, CNPC, has a 40 per cent share in these blocks through the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC) consortium, in which Malaysia’s Petronas Carigali Overseas has 30 per cent, India’s ONGC Videsh 25 per cent and state Sudanese company Sudapet the remaining 5 per cent.
中国国有企业——中国石油天然气集团公司（CNPC，简称：中石油）通过入股财团大尼罗河石油作业公司(GNPOC)，拥有这些油田40%的权益。马来西亚的Petronas Carigali Overseas公司拥有该财团30%的股份。印度的ONGC Videsh和苏丹国家石油公司(Sudapet)分别拥有25%和5%的权益。

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“Carving up the GNPOC Consortium along the border may have dire consequences for all parties involved,” said a report by the research network the European Coalition on Oil in Sudan: “How to Separate Siamese Twins”.
研究网络European Coalition on Oil in Sudan的一份名为《如何分离连体婴？》(How to Separate Siamese Twins)的报告指出：“沿着边境线切分GNPOC财团，可能会给所有相关利益方带来极其严重的后果。”

A senior CNPC official told the Financial Times the GNPOC companies want their current contract to continue unscathed, with the blocks managed by a joint venture formed between the two new states.
中石油一位高管告诉英国《金融时报》，组成GNPOC的各企业，都希望自己的现有合约能不受损害地继续履行，由两个新国家联合成立一家企业，来管理这些油田。

飞雪寒冰

Drilling and other activities will already involve crossing the future border daily, the official said. “The worst thing for the joint ventures is just to separate things completely,” he added. “It’s very easy to talk about the surface but very difficult to talk about what is underground. It is impossible to know how much is in the south and how much in the north.”
这位高管表示，钻井及其他活动需要每天都来往于未来的边境线。“对于合资企业而言，最糟糕的事情莫过于彻底分割资产。地面上的事物谈起来非常容易，但地下的东西谈起来则非常困难。人们不可能知道有多少（石油）在南部、有多少在北部。”

There are also questions about plans for a southern pipeline favoured by the south’s ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement as a way to free the region from dependence on the north’s infrastructure.
对于南苏丹执政党苏丹人民解放运动(SPLM)所青睐的在南部修建一条石油管道的计划，人们也存在质疑。该组织将这条管道视为让南苏丹摆脱对北部基础设施依赖的一种办法。

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Production from the relevant fields is expected to peak next year and they could run dry within 15 years, the CNPC official said. “If [the southern] government wants to build a pipeline it will take a lot of time and where is the financing?”
中石油高管表示，这些油田的产量预计将在明年见顶，可能会在15年内枯竭。“如果（南部）政府想修建一条管道，这将耗费很长一段时间，资金又从哪儿来？”

Under the current agreement, the north and south split the Sudanese share of revenues equally.
根据现有协议，南北方将平分苏丹获得的收益。

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But the south has long argued it has been short-changed and vice-president Riek Machar, who is in charge of negotiations for the south, told the FT the south would seek retrospective payment should unpaid dues emerge. The Referendum Act provides for oil contract negotiation in any post-referendum scenario, although the south has so far sought to reassure investors that it will honour pre-2005 contracts.
但长期以来，南部地区一直声称自己受到了不公平对待，而代表南部负责谈判的副总统•马查尔(Riek Machar)对英国《金融时报》表示，一旦出现未付收益的情况，南苏丹将要求补发收益。《南部苏丹公投法》规定，无论公投后结果如何，都将进行石油合约谈判，不过，南部苏丹一直在努力安慰投资者，称会遵守2005年之前签署的合约。

China, which has long been criticised for its close ties to Khartoum, has also moved quickly to prove itself amenable to an independent south, after previously backing unity.
长期以来一直被指责与苏丹政府关系紧密的中国，也迅速采取行动，证明自己接受南部的独立，而此前，中国一直支持统一。

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“Oil is a pillar of the economy – everybody depends on it and we hope settlement between north and south will not affect production,” said Zhang Jun, China’s consul for economic affairs in the southern capital Juba. “For that we need co-operation.”
中国驻南苏丹首都朱巴总领馆商务领事张军表示：“石油是苏丹经济的支柱，所有人都依赖它，我们希望南北方之间的协议不会影响到生产。为此，我们必须合作。”

While GNPOC has offices solely in the north, CNPC – which is responsible for about half of Sudan’s oil output – established a satellite office in Juba late last year, staffed by Chinese expatriates.
尽管GNPOC只在北部设有办事处，但中石油去年底在朱巴成立了一个卫星办公室，员工都来自中国国内。中石油占到苏丹约一半的石油产出。

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“China has a substantial amount of oil interests in the south and one of the interesting parts is the very positive role that China has been playing behind the scenes,” said David Abramowitz, policy director at Humanity United, a US rights group.
美国人权组织Humanity United的政策负责人戴维•阿布拉莫维茨(David Abramowitz)表示：“中国在南苏丹拥有大量石油权益，而一个有趣的情况就是，中国在这些事件背后一直扮演着非常积极的角色。”

The CNPC official said conditions in the south were worse than in the north, however, and that the consortium was losing $10m a year to corruption, theft and damage.
上述中石油高管表示，南部的情况比北部糟糕，财团每年因腐败、盗窃和损害而蒙受的损失金额高达1000万美元。

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He said trucks bringing in fuel vital to operations were stopped at 12 illegal checkpoints on one 200km stretch of road alone, each time being charged $300. Waste oil has been set ablaze and workers kidnapped, he added.
他表示，运送油田运作所必需的燃料的卡车，要受到层层盘剥。一段只有200公里的公路上，就有12个非法检查点，每一个收费300美元。他补充道，还有人点燃废油，员工也时常遭到绑架。

Mr Zhang said: “Our people are risking their lives for this oil and the benefit of this country.”
张军表示：“我们的员工正冒着生命危险，保护这里的石油和这个国家的利益。”