外交官杂志：怎样让美国住嘴

nicholasxw

　　希拉里o克林顿关于南中国海问题的谈话不应让中国大惊小怪。中国政府须审慎对待此类评论，以免反应过激。
　　美中关系似乎再次触礁。首先，中国与巴基斯坦共同签署的一项贷款框架协议颇受关注，中国将在巴基斯坦建设两座核反应堆，这令华盛顿焦躁不安。
　　再有，北京强烈反对美韩海军在日本海上月进行的大规模联合演习，认为此举“加剧地区紧张局势”。
　　美国国务卿希拉里o克林顿7月23日在河内举行的东盟地区安全论坛上指出“美国支持一种基于合作的外交谈判程序，各方应积极参与、共同解决南海领土纠纷，美国反对以任何理由使用武力。”她同时发表声明，强调美国“反对任何一方以武力相威胁”，这无疑激怒了中国，中方官员驳斥美国意欲将南海问题“国际化”。
　　表面看，北京似乎有充分的理由对希拉里的言论感到不安。首先，其对南海问题的高谈阔论显然在中方激起一番波澜。之前无人料到克林顿国务卿会在今年的东盟地区安全论坛上发表的评论会如此引人关注。该论坛语调向来平淡无奇。
　　其次，本次论坛在越南河内举行，会议基调恐怕也非中方所好。越南是南海部分海域领土争端的参与方，也是克林顿此番言论所提及的关键参与方。其关于南海的评论看似中立，实则更向东盟各成员国立场倾斜。
　　因此，在北京看来，华盛顿并不打算一碗水端平。中国深知解决南中国海领土纷争远非一日之功。就此不论，妥善处理与邻国的关系也需要长期努力和不懈探索。2002年，中国和东盟签署了历史性的《南海各方行为宣言》，呼吁各方寻求和平化解领土争端的途径。如今一些东盟国家领导人期望中国能在今年底签署一项相关行为准则。
　　但北京不应任由非理性蔓延而失掉判断。克林顿之前，没有一位美国国务卿对南中国海问题公开表明美国的立场（这恐怕也是其言论颇受关注的一大原因）。另一方面，其评论主旨并未偏离美国对南海争端的一贯立场，因此近期美国不会发生重大政策转向。
　　克林顿的东盟言论看似扰人，但中方也许更加留意早在今年2月来自华盛顿就南中国海问题的看法。其时，美国防部亚太副助理部长罗伯特o薛尔在美中经济与安全评估委员会的听证会上表明了相同立场。
　　如果薛尔的证词没能引起中方注意，今年6月5日美国防部长罗伯特o盖茨的发言乃是另一机会。盖茨在新加坡举行的香格里拉对话中指出“南中国海地区日益引发美方担忧…美方政策十分明确：保证区域稳定和自由通航、确保经济开发活动不受阻碍。美方不偏袒任何一方，反对运用武力和任何损害自由通航的行动。美方极力反对任何威胁美国公司或他国企业在该地区从事合法经济活动的行为。美方敦促各方共同协作，在国际法的指引下，通过和平、多边沟通的方式来化解分歧。”
　　让人不解的是，比起克林顿的东盟谈话，盖茨的言论更加尖锐，但并未在中方引发如此强烈的不满。
　　因此，中国领导人无需把东盟讲话太当回事，也大可不必反应过激。与华盛顿在南海一事上犯口角不值得。
　　中国所能采取的最合适的反应恐怕是继续站在美国的对立面，保持其在东南亚地区的影响力和声望。过去十年来，中国在东南亚地区的国家形象大幅提升。通过其强大的经济影响力和出众的外交本领，中国长期以来致力于维护本地区的和平与发展，在东南亚地区的战略安全进程中扮演关键角色，对该地区的繁荣稳定发挥着不可忽视的作用。
　　要平息这场外交小风波、让美国住嘴，北京要做的恐怕只是年内和东盟签署南中国海行为准则。
　　裴敏欣是卡耐基国际和平基金会兼任高级研究员、加州Claremont McKenna College教授

英文原文：


How China Can Shut US Up
　　By Minxin Pei
　　US-China ties appear to have hit another rough patch. First there was the revelation that China and Pakistan had signed a deal that would lead to the construction by China of two nuclear reactors in Pakistan, a development that has aroused much anxiety in Washington.
　　Then, Beijing made public its displeasure over the large-scale joint naval exercise conducted by the 7th Fleet and the South Korean Navy in the Sea of Japan, saying it viewed such a display of military power as 'destabilizing.'
　　But it was US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's declaration on July 23 at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi that 'The United States supports a collaborative diplomatic process by all claimants for resolving the various territorial disputes without coercion,' and announcement that the United States 'oppose[s] the use or threat of force by any claimant,' that sent China into a rage, with officials accusing the Americans of attempting to 'internationalize' the South China Sea disputes.

　　On the surface, Beijing seems to be fully justified in being upset about Clinton's remarks. First, she clearly caught the Chinese by surprise. Apparently, no hint had been given to the Chinese that Clinton would make a momentous announcement at this year's ARF, which is known chiefly as an uneventful talk-shop.
　　Second, the symbolism carried by the venue itself, Hanoi, must deeply trouble the Chinese. Vietnam is one of the principal claimants in the dispute and Clinton's remarks, although taken alone sounding neutral, actually are closer to the Association of South-east Asian Nations' positions than to China's.
　　So in Beijing's eyes, Washington has now taken sides. China believes that, despite the long-simmering territorial disputes in the South China Sea, that it has taken serious steps to address its neighbors' concerns. In 2002, for example, China and ASEAN signed a historic Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea that pledges to seek a peaceful resolution to the territorial disputes. Meanwhile, some ASEAN officials expect that China will sign a code of conduct at the end of this year.
　　However, Beijing shouldn't allow fury to muddle its judgment. To be sure, no US secretary of state has ever publicly declared a US position on the South China Sea disputes (making this perhaps the most significant aspect of the Clinton statement). But on the other hand, the substance of her remarks don't depart from the long-standing US position on the South China Sea disputes. So in reality there's been no policy change.
　　Indeed, although the Clinton statement seems to have come as a nasty shock, Chinese officials should really have been paying more attention to recent statements coming from Washington on the South China Sea dispute-in February this year, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Robert Scher stated essentially the same positions in his testimony to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a Congressional-chartered body.
　　And if Scher failed to get Beijing's attention, the remarks by US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on June 5 should have. Addressing the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore, Gates declared that 'the South China Sea is an area of growing concern…Our policy is clear: it is essential that stability, freedom of navigation, and free and unhindered economic development be maintained. We don't take sides on any competing sovereignty claims, but we do oppose the use of force and actions that hinder freedom of navigation. We object to any effort to intimidate US corporations or those of any nation engaged in legitimate economic activity. All parties must work together to resolve differences through peaceful, multilateral efforts consistent with customary international law.'
　　Curiously, Gates' remarks, more pointed than Clinton's, elicited no howls of protest from China.
　　So Chinese officials needn't read too much into Clinton's recent remarks on the South China Sea, and they certainly shouldn't overreact and pick a fight with Washington over a non-issue like this.
　　The best response from China instead would be to turn on their charm as a counter-offensive against Washington's (belated) diplomatic efforts to restore its influence and prestige in South-east Asia. For the past decade, China has achieved great success in leveraging its economic influence and plying its diplomatic skills to reassure South-east Asian countries and improve its image in the region.
　　In fact, to quell this little diplomatic storm-and shut the Americans up-all Beijing has to do is to sign the South China Sea Code of Conduct with ASEAN.
　　Minxin Pei is an adjunct senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College

疯丫头

空旷旷

vbiciedd

楼主辛苦了


















我就是让人讨厌的蹭车一族，其实我也是没有办法

adamslu283

看看

adamslu283

看看

杀手746

DNF尼古拉斯的模式及死灵技能介绍(进阶必看)

　　1：尼古拉斯战斗模式的选择：
sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515
　　(1)在杀小怪的时候，且开启大巴状态下，尼古拉斯改为防御状态对你的提升和帮助或许更大，1是因为大巴状态下XXX也经常有怪物反击，增加点防御不错，2是因为防御状态下尼古拉斯是属于跟随你的，这样施放暗影蛛网阵对你伤害提升比较明显!(状态模式为盾牌)

　　(2)个别情况可以开启好战模式，这种情况就属于人物躲怪物攻击比较轻松的情况下开启的，当然这个最好是在清理小怪时用，主要是为了在人物没有危险的情况下，尽量提升尼古拉斯生存能力!(状态模式为拳头)

　　(3)再杀BOSS时，开启消极模式，是比较好的选择增加攻击输出，而BOSS就1个怪，不会像杀小怪时乱跑，这样你施放暗影蛛网阵提升自身伤害也好，施放吸魂暗劲波输出与定BOSS业好，都可以轻松使用而不用担心尼古拉斯位置不对的问题!(状态模式为十字架)sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515

　　2：关于暗影蛛网阵与吸魂暗劲波的使用技巧：DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNFhttp://dnf.k600.net 解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器http://dnf.k600.net DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器DNF解封器http://dnf.k600.net 　　(1)在尼古拉斯为保护模式下使用，因为尼古拉斯保护模式下是跟随主人的!

　　(2)先施放暗影蛛网阵，然后按住吸魂暗劲波技能键，这样尼古拉斯将瞬移到你前方位置施放吸魂暗劲波技能，这样就不用担心尼古拉斯乱跑而技能放空的情况了。(这样暗影蛛网阵与吸魂暗劲波就能起到全中的效果了，在这时你就可以全力输出，包括巴拉卡的野心与巴拉克的愤怒全放，除了远古地图，应该全部怪都是翘翘了)
sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515
　　3：关于大巴使用技巧(公开技能)：

　　(1)XXXX为普通攻击

　　(2)X然后按住反方向键XX然后放开反方向键X，效果为大巴先砍一刀，然后2巴掌打过去(能过推开怪物)最后再砍一刀!当然如果你X攻击后按住反方向键一直不放的话，那么就没有最后1刀的劈砍攻击了，不过对于这种攻击方式来说，主要作用还是在于推开怪物!

　　(3)Z键：大巴的疯狂乱舞技能!
sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515
　　(4)前冲中X：大巴的破碎拳，也就是破霸体的擒拿技!
sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515sdfsdgsdg13515
　　4：大巴召唤之前，应当堆满属性，因为大巴是按照降临时的属性计算的，推荐使用邪恶药剂，力量与智慧双加，比较划算，另外再使用黑暗仪式之前，请先吃好各种药剂，包括加力量的药剂，因为黑暗仪式是按照力量转换成智慧的，不要小看这个细节，这会使你多加几点智慧

　　最后提一点小建议：死灵术士属于诅咒类职业，想提高伤害就是靠各种技能搭配在一起使用时，伤害才能打到最大化，比如在怪物中了死亡之爪后，伤害明显比未中死亡之爪的伤害高!所以请不要单独使用一个技能，最好的方式是CD都留着一口气把死亡之爪