China: rapid growth, few jobs

飞雪寒冰

Jobs are the trump card. US politicians say that Chinese exports are unfairly putting Americans out of work. Chinese leaders respond that, were the renminbi to rise, they would have their own employment emergency. “Many of our exporting companies would have to close down, migrant workers would have to return to their villages,” Wen Jiabao argued last week.
就业是一张王牌。美国政界人士表示，中国出口正不公平地导致美国人失业。中国领导人回应称，如果人民币升值，他们本国的就业也会陷入险地。“中国出口企业将大量倒闭，工人将失业，农民工将返乡，”温Jiabao上周辩称。

So it’s worth noting that China has been rather inefficient at creating domestic jobs. According to the following graph from Morgan Stanley, new employment in the country has lagged behind that of other Asian economies - even though Chinese GDP has grown far faster.
所以，下面一点值得注意：即，中国在创造国内就业岗位上一直相当低效。据如下来自摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的图表显示，尽管中国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长比其它亚洲经济体快许多，但它的新增就业却不及它们。

飞雪寒冰

Between 1990 and 2010, GDP growth averaged a formidable 10.5 per cent a year but employment growth was just 1 per cent. Over the past decade, the less dynamic economies of Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and India have seen greater jobs growth.
1990年到2010年期间，中国GDP年均增长率达到了令人敬畏的10.5%，但年均就业增长却仅为1%。在过去十年内，尽管泰国、韩国、印尼与印度经济活力相对较弱，但它们的就业增长却更为强劲。

The explanation, say Morgan Stanley analysts Qing Wang and Ernest Ho in a report published on Monday, is that, “China’s strong growth over the past two decades clearly reflects rapid labor productivity growth, while the quantity of labor supply has played a rather insignificant role.”
摩根士丹利分析师王庆(Qing Wang)与何泓哲(Ernest Ho)在周一发表的一份报告中表示，究其原因，“中国过去二十年的强劲增长，明显是劳动生产率的快速增长的反映，而劳动力供给量的作用要小得多。”

飞雪寒冰

Productivity has accelerated thanks partly to China’s high savings rate, which pushes down the cost of capital investment. And it could rise even further, as capital remains cheap and workers move away from the primary sector. (Others dispute that China has the technology to move into value-added industries.)
生产率加速增长，一定程度上得益于中国的高储蓄率，因为它压低了资本投资的成本。而且，生产率还可能会进一步增长，因为资本仍然很便宜，且工人正逐渐从第一产业中转移出来。（也有人质疑，中国是否拥有进入增值产业的技术。）

For Morgan Stanley, the relative lack of job creation has a positive spin: it means that China’s growth won’t plunge as the population ages. Growth could average 8 per cent until 2020.
摩根士丹利认为，就业岗位创造的相对缺乏存在积极的一面：它意味着，中国的增长不会伴随人口老龄化大幅减速。2020年前的年均增长率可能会达到8%。

飞雪寒冰

To find new workers, companies will have to move to rural areas, and the government will have to use social housing and other services to woe migrants. Yet there are still plenty of rural residents and middle-aged people in need of a job - precisely because past growth has failed to suck them up.
为了寻找新工人，企业将不得不迁移至农村地区；政府将不得不利用社会保障性住房与其它服务来争取农民工。尽管如此，届时仍会存在大量需要工作的农村居民与中年人——只因为过去的增长未能提供给他们就业。

That’s a rebuttal to those who argue that China is facing a labour shortage that will empower employees. But it’s also suggests Wen might be mistaken in focusing on how a stronger renminbi might affect industrial workers. China’s real problem is that it didn’t create enough jobs in the first place.
对于那些辩称中国正面临劳动力短缺、而这种短缺会让工人阶层变得更强大的人来说，上述内容是有力的反驳。但它同时也表明，温Jiabao对人民币升值会如何影响产业工人的关注可能是错误的。中国真正的问题在于，它一开始就未能创造足够的就业岗位。