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发表于 2010-10-13 10:06:58
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What has this to do with the G20 decisions on fiscal policy? In the years prior to the financial crisis, three groups of countries had large excesses of income over spending: a few mature industrial countries, notably Germany and Japan, China – which was in a category of its own – and some commodity exporters. Meanwhile, with most emerging market economies scarred by financial crises, the offsetting deficits were run by a number of advanced countries, notably the US, as well as central and eastern Europe. Then, when the crisis broke, the surpluses of the surplus countries shrank as external demand collapsed. But their external demand was also supported by the soaring fiscal deficits, particularly in deficit countries: thus, public leveraging partially offset private deleveraging. Now, with the involuntary tightening in peripheral Europe and voluntary tightening elsewhere, comes yet more austerity.
,三个重要赤字国家——美国、英国、西班牙——的公共债务规模似乎就会得到很好的抑制。拿西班牙来说,其政府债务甚至出现了持续下降。家庭债务相对金融资产的比例,也误导我们相信,基础债务的状况良好。然后,随着金融危机爆发、资产泡沫破裂,家庭部门开始减少负债,财政部门则开始增加负债。
There is a widely held belief that this retrenchment will, via confidence effects, lead to a burgeoning of private spending. But, as the BIS annual report also shows, deleveraging tends to be deep and prolonged in post-crisis economies. When such a large part of the world economy is affected, the adverse legacy is likely to last still longer.
这些都是一一对应的关系:如果私人部门有财务盈余(收大于支),那么就肯定对应着财政赤字或经常账户盈余(或两者都有)。私人部门盈余越多,财政赤字或经常账户盈余也肯定越多。反过来,如果财政赤字减少,私人部门的支出与收入比就必须提高,或者经常账户盈余就必须增多。显然,若想提高私人部门的支出与收入比,就需要增加支出,而非降低收入——尤其是在经历严重衰退之后。
In sum, excess supply parcels went from surplus countries to the private sectors of deficit countries and then, after the crisis, on to the public sectors of the latter countries. Assume that many of the latter now retrench. Where will they go next?
这与G20在财政政策方面的决议有什么关系?在金融危机爆发前的几年里,有三类国家拥有巨额收支盈余:少数成熟的工业国(尤其是德国和日本),中国(自成一类),以及一些大宗商品出口国。与此同时,由于数次金融危机留给大多数新兴市场经济体的伤口尚未愈合,所以,许多发达国家(尤其是美国)和中东欧国家就相应累积着赤字。然后,当本次危机爆发时,由于外部需求剧减,盈余国家的盈余也随之减少。但它们的外部需求也受到了财政赤字飙升(尤其是赤字国家)的支撑。如此一来,公共部门的增加负债在一定程度上抵消了私人部门减少负债的影响。如今,随着欧洲外围国家不自愿地紧缩和其它国家自愿地紧缩,公共财政将愈发趋紧。 |
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