Running out of time

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Oct 13th 2008 | NEW YORK
From Economist.com

As Barack Obama appears to pull ahead, what options remain for John McCain?

AP
WITH three weeks to go before American voters choose their next president, the outcome looks increasingly clear. Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, is comfortably ahead in national opinion polls, with a lead of anything up to ten points. His dominance in some swing states, such as Michigan and Iowa, and his narrow lead in others, such as Florida and Ohio, suggest that he may record a comfortable victory.

Nothing is certain, of course. But as the campaign continues amid a global financial crisis, voters are blaming the incumbent party and saying that they have more trust in Mr Obama to handle economic matters. John McCain had hoped that the intensity of the financial crisis would ease and that concerns about foreign affairs might again come to the fore: he is still seen by voters as the more trustworthy candidate when asked who should become commander-in-chief of the armed forces. But the economy remains foremost in voters’ minds.

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Mr McCain tried to garner attention last week with a populist economic proposal. During the second presidential debate he suggested that the Treasury should buy distressed mortgages and refinance them, letting borrowers enjoy more affordable rates. He argued that by tackling mortgage defaults, his plan would deal with the roots of the financial difficulties and make it easier to rescue banks, while keeping homeowners under their roofs. But critics have given warning about the cost and practicality of the proposal; many conservatives say that it would create moral hazard. Whatever the merits of his case, it has not generated enthusiasm.

Another approach for the McCain campaign, as it is for any candidate behind in the polls, has been to launch attacks on the frontrunner. Before the intensity of the financial crisis worsened in September, it was possible to present the presidential election as a referendum on Mr Obama’s character. As long it was, Mr McCain remained close to his rival in the polls. Thus the Republican campaign last week raised questions about Mr Obama’s fleeting association with Bill Ayers, a far-left radical who opposed the Vietnam war and who belonged to a group that bombed the Pentagon, the Capitol and a judge’s house. Mr McCain’s running-mate, Sarah Palin, has even said that the Democrat “pals around” with domestic terrorists.

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That succeeded in whipping-up some ugly elements in the Republican party. At some rallies supporters of Mr McCain have reportedly taken to shouting out that Mr Obama is a terrorist, an Arab and a traitor who should have his head lopped off. But it did not stop Mr McCain’s slide in the polls. To Mr McCain’s credit, on Friday he began to discourage such outbursts and told his supporters that his opponent is “a decent family man with whom I happen to have some disagreements.” Although it remains possible that the McCain campaign will again draw attention to Mr Obama’s relationship with his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, in the remaining weeks of the campaign, personal attacks are unlikely to turn the election in Mr McCain’s favour.

Instead, Mr McCain seems to be beginning another campaign, focused on a more traditional Republican economic message, beginning with a speech in Virginia on Monday October 13th. Mr Obama, he claims, will add nearly a trillion dollars in new spending to the budget, raise taxes and swell debt. Mr McCain, by contrast, says that he will encourage small businesses with his tax code, while freezing federal non-defence discretionary spending. He wants to drill for oil off America’s shore, and use a tax-credit to expand health care.

In the speech on Monday neither Mr McCain nor Mrs Palin launched attacks on the character of the Democrat. Instead, Mr McCain repeatedly used the word “fight” to invoke a struggle against hopelessness and fear, and to remind listeners of his war-hero days. Perhaps he worried that the character attacks, not only ineffective, were destroying his reputation. Voters increasingly tell pollsters that Mr McCain is focused on tearing down Mr Obama, not on dealing with their problems. A new focus on economic matters may not be enough to rescue Mr McCain, but it should make the contest a more attractive one.