No more business as usual?

tauringhuang.

Aug 19th 2008
From Economist.com

NATO foreign ministers issue a warning to Russia, telling it to withdraw troops from Georgia

Reuters
NATO foreign ministers gathered in Brussels on Tuesday August 19th for an emergency summit, called by America, to discuss what to do next about Georgia and Russia. The military alliance gave warning that “we cannot continue with business as usual” until Russia withdraws troops from Georgia. NATO also pledged to deepen ties with Georgia by setting up a NATO-Georgia Commission. Russia and America have cancelled plans for joint military exercises.

The facts on the ground are changing only slowly. Despite a promise by Russia’s president, Dmitry Medvedev, that Russian troops now deep inside Georgia would this week withdraw (presumably to the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia), only by the middle of the day on Tuesday were the first reports issued that some Russian units were beginning to pull back from the town of Gori. However this was a small gesture compared with the steady flow of troops and armour heading in the opposition direction in previous days. Also on Tuesday Russian troops detained 21 Georgian soldiers in another town, Poti.

A ceasefire is in place and some prisoners have been exchanged, but Russia continues to flex its substantial military muscle. Claiming a right to take additional security measures, Russian troops had continued to destroy and loot Georgian military bases. One Russian colonel had crowed that looted American rations were particularly tasty. In addition there were reports that economic targets—such as a railway line that runs east to west across the country—had been attacked. In South Ossetia itself, ethnic Georgian villages have been burned and homes destroyed.

The longer that Russian forces remain in Georgia proper, the greater the demonstration by Russia that it intends to assert its will over the small neighbour. Although Russia has apparently stopped short of trying to topple the pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili, it is stating that Georgia lies within its sphere of influence and that, for example, Georgian membership of NATO would not be tolerated. Despite the new commission, the prospect of further expansion of NATO has receded in the past two weeks.

Russia’s leaders are confident not only because of their local military superiority. They also know that Western leverage in Georgia and in the immediate region is hampered by sharp diplomatic divisions between NATO allies. On Tuesday at the summit Germany’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, appeared to play down the importance of Georgia to the West, noting that NATO’s involvement in the region is “very limited”.

America, which has the biggest political interest in the region, had endorsed Mr Saakashvili and retrained the Georgian army. It has been the most outspoken in support of Georgia, threatening for example to scrap regular ministerial meetings between NATO countries and Russia. On Monday Condoleezza Rice, on her way to Brussels, told reporters that NATO must “deny Russian strategic objectives, which are clearly to undermine Georgia's democracy, to use its military capability to damage and in some cases destroy Georgian infrastructure and to try and weaken the Georgian state.” Eastern European countries have largely followed America’s line, fearing that a resurgent Russia is once again a direct threat to their interests.

In contrast a group of west European countries, notably France, Germany and Italy, is anxious to avoid greater confrontation with Russia. Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, strongly criticised Russia’s actions this weekend, even as she stood beside Mr Medvedev in Sochi, a Russian coastal resort near to Georgia. She said that Russia’s response to Georgia’s (ill-considered) attack on South Ossetia was both “disproportionate” and “unreasonable.” But German dependence on energy from the east—roughly half of the 80 billion cubic metres of gas consumed in Germany each year are now piped from Russia—encourages others, such as her foreign minister and the former chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, to seek a more emollient line. Mr Schröder told Der Spiegel this week that Europe should “maintain a strong relationship with Russia”, adding that “there is not a single critical problem in world politics or the global economy that could be solved without Russia.”

Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s prime minister who has a close relationship with Vladimir Putin (he once described himself as Mr Putin’s “defence lawyer”), has been similarly unwilling to confront Russia. Italy depends heavily, too, on Russian imports, which represent roughly a third of the gas that it consumes each year.

Attention may turn next to Ukraine, where another broadly pro-Western government that seeks membership of NATO faces domestic instability and fears of Russian intervention in some form. On Monday Ukraine’s president, Viktor Yushchenko, who has spoken out against Russia’s actions in Georgia, accused his ally-turned-rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister, of seeking Russian support in a forthcoming presidential election. Ms Tymoshenko has, so far, remained silent on events in Georgia. Using a war in Georgia for narrow political ends will not help to solve the crisis.