隔靴搔痒的G20公报

飞雪寒冰

Most of the communiqué agreed by the Group of 20 finance ministers over the weekend was utter fudge and drivel. Every second sentence seemed to end with “taking into account national circumstances”. Try, too, visualising a “multi-pronged framework”. Many are disappointed about the meeting’s failure to properly define economic imbalances. They – and the G20 – should stop wasting their time. Even if yardsticks could be agreed, no one would know what to do with them anyway. Such distractions are a pity because the G20 raised other issues just as important to the global economy but where there is a far better chance of building consensus.
在20国集团(G20)财长周末达成的公报中，大部分内容都是十足的空话和套话。每两句似乎就有一句的结尾是“考虑到各国国情”。再试着想一下“多方面框架”究竟该是什么样子。许多人对于本次会议未能恰当定义经济失衡感到失望。他们——还有G20——应当停止浪费时间。即便各方能够就衡量标准达成一致，也没人知道该拿这些标准怎么办。这种分心令人遗憾，因为G20提出了对全球经济同样重要的其它问题，而在那些问题上凝聚共识的机会要大得多。

飞雪寒冰

One such area is concern over commodity prices. The communiqué asks for international organisations to report back to the G20 on the drivers of higher prices and to consider possible action. Actually, the International Monetary Fund has already made a start. In its latest World Economic Outlook, it concludes that metal price increases are because of scarcity (not, for example, nasty speculators) and that prices are only half way through the average 20-year trough-to-peak cycle seen since 1850. Similar work needs to be done for all commodities before responses, if any, are made.


对大宗商品价格的担忧就是这样一个领域。公报要求相关国际组织向G20报告价格上涨的驱动因素，并考虑可能采取的行动。实际上，国际货币基金组织(IMF)已经开启了这方面的工作。该组织在最新《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中认为，金属价格上涨是由于稀缺（而不是讨厌的投机商），而且按照自1850年以来从低谷至顶峰平均每20年一个周期的规律，目前价格只涨到一半。在做出任何回应之前，需要针对所有大宗商品进行类似的研究工作。

飞雪寒冰

The second area where the G20 has genuinely encouraged better

co-operation is financial reform. It should drop the fatuous targeting of pay, shadow banking and rating agencies. But the G20 should continue its success in helping to bring international accounting standards into line as well as pushing to implement Basel III standards for banks as quickly as possible. Nothing will make the financial system safer than requiring big financial institutions to hold more equity capital relative to assets. Banks will resist as returns on equity should fall as a result. The G20 needs to focus on tough but winnable battles and forget about trying to force the Germans and Chinese to buy more televisions.

G20真心鼓励改善合作的第二个领域是金融改革。它应当放弃愚昧地把矛头对准薪酬、影子银行业和评级机构。但是，G20应当继续推进自己在几个方面的成功，包括推动统一国际会计标准，以及推动尽快实施针对银行的巴塞尔三号协议(Basel III)。要提高金融体系的安全度，最有效的方式莫过于要求大型金融机构持有更多股本（相对于资产）。银行会予以DIZHI，因为股本回报率将随之下降。G20应当聚焦于艰难但能够打赢的战役，而忘掉试图迫使德国人和中国人购买更多电视机。