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发表于 2008-4-26 11:50:52
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还有其它一些复杂的因素。例如,目前尚不清楚,外汇储备数据中包括多少以市价标价的增加额。但总之,今年第一季度外汇储备的实际增加额,可能比公布的数字高出多达1000亿美元。人们有理由对此感到担心。热钱流入的不断加速表明,中国政府的资本管制是不够的。这些热钱主要是押注人民币升值。经济学家布拉德•塞斯特(Brad Setser)估计,中国的外汇储备已占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的三分之一左右。在累积外国资产以吸收资金流入方面,中国还能坚持多久,这一点令人感到怀疑。
There are other complicating factors. It is unclear, for example, how much marked-to-market gains are included in the reserves figure. But all in, the actual rate of reserves accumulation in the first quarter might be up to $100bn higher than the published number suggests. There is reason to be spooked by this. Rising hot money inflows, which are largely a bet on renminbi appreciation, show that Beijing's capital controls are inadequate. Already China's claims on the US equate to about one-third of China's gross domestic product, estimates economist Brad Setser. How much longer it can accumulate foreign assets to absorb inflows is questionable. |
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