African cheer

tauringhuang.

Sep 6th 2008
From Economist.com

Sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest oil exporter held its first elections in 16 years

AFP
IT SHOULD be a moment for Angola, and the rest of Africa, to smile. Some 8m Angolans were registered, of a population of 17m, to cast their ballots in parliamentary elections on Friday September 5th. They did so in only the second multiparty election since independence in 1975. The previous time, in 1992, a dispute over the result propelled Jonas Savimbi, then the leader of a rebel-movement-turned-political-party, to flee to the bush and restart a brutal civil war that continued until his death in 2002. This time the election was widely expected to be peaceful, and the prospect of renewed conflict is almost certainly nil.

Despite some delays, it seemed likely that a successful set of parliamentary elections would be followed by presidential and local ones next year. Nobody expected a squeaky-clean poll. Human Rights Watch, a monitoring group, says that the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), which has held power continuously since independence, had exploited its power of incumbency to guarantee itself a victory.

Most Angolans get their news on the radio which remains controlled by the government almost everywhere beyond the cities. The state also dominates the only non-satellite television station and the only daily national newspaper. The MPLA, according to its critics, got far more than its fair share of coverage in the press. Opposition campaigners said that they were attacked by MPLA activists in several provinces. There were also doubts about the impartiality of the electoral commissions that organised the poll.

Despite all that, however, vote-rigging was expected to be kept to a minimum. The government let in hundreds of foreign observers, some of whom were on the ground for weeks, to monitor the election. Opposition parties were also given state money to campaign. The main opposition, Savimbi’s National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), which is now led by the urbane Isaias Samavuka, is expected to remain the main challenger to the ruling party. It currently holds 70 parliamentary seats, to the MPLA’s 129 (of a total of 220). Altogether, voters had a choice from 10 political parties and four coalitions.

tauringhuang.

A peaceful vote in a relatively large African country would be a prize in itself. After the election fiascoes in Zimbabwe earlier in the year, and in Kenya and Nigeria last year, Angola’s poll was not expected to generate grave headlines or horror stories.

The ruling MPLA’s main claim to re-election was that it is presiding over a period of unprecedented economic growth; by some accounts Angola is Africa’s fastest-growing economy. It grew by 21% last year, and could add another 16% this year. The booming oil industry explains almost all of this: Angola has probably overtaken Nigeria as sub-Saharan Africa’s largest exporter of black gold. Billions of dollars in foreign investment have been attracted by the opportunities that have opened up with the success of the oil and related industries. The government is using some of its revenues to embark on projects to rebuild and modernise roads, bridges, schools and hospitals, and other public services smashed by decades of civil war.

Yet it is also clear that most Angolans have not seen any benefits from the massive influx of money. Two thirds of Angolans still live on less than $2 a day. And in this, the opposition see their opportunity. For much of the election campaign, UNITA (and other opposition) politicians have focused on the growing inequalities and lack of progress in the countryside that they blame on MPLA selfishness and corruption. They may not win a majority of seats in parliament when results are eventually released—but they may win enough to prevent the MPLA from getting the two-thirds majority that it needs to further entrench its power by altering the constitution to its benefit.