伊拉克石油产量悄然升至十年最高

飞雪寒冰

Iraq has raised its oil output to the highest level for almost a decade, adding another 350,000 barrels a day in the space of six months to reach 2.68m b/d, according to the International Energy Agency.
国际能源机构(IEA)表示，伊拉克已将石油日产量提高到近十年来的最高水平，在半年内提高了35万桶，达到每日268万桶。

For years, one of the concerns surrounding world oil supply has been Iraq’s hydrocarbon industry, damaged by decades of war and under-investment. But as the loss of Libyan oil has helped to push the price of a barrel of Brent crude above $125, Iraq has quietly boosted its production by 15 per cent since August.
因数十年战争和投资不足而严重受损的伊拉克油气行业，多年来一直是全球石油供给方面令人担忧的一个因素。然而，就在利比亚石油减产等因素推动布伦特(Brent)原油价格突破每桶125美元之际，伊拉克从去年8月份以来，已悄然将产量提高了15%。

飞雪寒冰

This may be an extreme example of China’s growing influence in Burma, but its pervasive investment, which provided $10bn – two-thirds of all foreign investment in Burma – over the financial year 2010-11, is part of a larger trend. It is not only worrying western politicians, who fret they are being outmanoeuvred in the race for Burma’s natural resources, but the Burmese themselves.
这或许是中国在缅甸影响力日益增长的一个极端例子，但在2010-11财年，中国对缅甸投资100亿美元，占到该国所有外国投资的三分之二，这种无孔不在的投资是更重要趋势的一部分。它不仅令西方政客们担忧，也让缅甸自身忧虑。西方政客担心自己在争抢缅甸自然资源的竞争中正落于下风。

“China has a grand strategy to control Burma because it is strategic to them. If anything happens to their eastern seaboard, they must have access to the west,” says one Burma analyst.
一位缅甸分析师表示：“中国拥有控制缅甸的宏大战略，因为这对他们来说具有战略意义。如果东部沿海地区出了事，它们必须拥有通往西方的渠道。”

“As long as you have control of business, you are running the economy whether we like it or not.”
“只要你控制了商业，你就是在运营经济——无论我们是否喜欢。”

飞雪寒冰

While Beijing provides vital trade for a country hobbled by western sanctions, Burma’s ruling junta is predictably silent on the subject of its northern neighbour. “There is concern about the growing influence of China and part of that reflects the opaqueness of the system here,” says a diplomat. “There are no public statements about the relationship.”
由于中国政府为遭受西方制裁的缅甸提供了关键的贸易，缅甸军政府在有关这个北方邻国的话题上三缄其口，也在人们的意料之中。一位外交官表示：“人们对中国日益增长的影响力感到担忧，部分担忧源于这一体系的不透明性——没有任何有关中缅两国关系的公开声明。”

It seems that in private, however, the generals admit that they have concerns. In 2009, the Burmese government approached US diplomats in Rangoon to propose better bilateral economic relations in order to “buffer Chinese dominance”, according to diplomatic cables.
然而在私下里，这些将军们似乎承认自己存在担忧。揭秘网站维基解密(WikiLeaks)公布的外交电报显示，2009年，缅甸政府与美国驻仰光外交官接触，提议加强双边经济关系，以“缓冲中国的主导地位”。

飞雪寒冰

The cables, obtained by WikiLeaks, the whistleblowing website, detail an overture by a “well-connected” Burmese businessman acting as the government’s informal envoy. “Asked his view of why the [government of Burma] is anxious for a better relationship with the US, [the source] said with assurance: China. The senior [Burmese] leadership really dislikes being too heavily dependent on one dominating neighbour and hopes the US can be a buffer,” one September 2009 dispatch reads.
这些电报详述了一位“人脉广泛”、作为政府非正式特使的缅甸商人的提议。2009年9月的一份电报中写道：“在被问及（缅甸政府）为何急于与美国改善关系时，（消息人士）肯定地回答道：是因为中国。（缅甸）高层真的不愿意过于依赖一个宗主般的邻国，他们希望美国可以发挥缓冲作用。”

At the time of the meeting, the US state department was carrying out a comprehensive review of its Burma policy, which combined broad sanctions that preclude US nationals or businesses from most economic activity in Burma with only minimal diplomatic contact.
在与缅甸方面会晤期间，美国国务院正在全面评估其对缅政策。美国对缅政策包括禁止美国公民或企业在缅甸从事大部分经济活动的全面制裁，以及只与缅甸保持最低限度的外交联系。

飞雪寒冰

The review, published in November of the same year, concluded that sanctions should be maintained, but that there should be increased diplomatic contacts at a more senior level.
美国在同年11月发表的评估中总结道，美国应该继续制裁缅甸，但应该增加更高级别的外交联系。

The resolution was in line with the envoy’s message, as relayed in the cable, that the Burmese government did not expect relief from sanctions in the short term, but hoped for an upgrade of diplomatic relations and an exchange of high-level visits.
正如电报所转述的那样，上述决议符合特使传达的如下信息：缅甸政府预计美国短期内不会取消制裁，但希望提高两国外交联系，并安排高层互访。

飞雪寒冰

Senator James Webb, chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee’s east Asia and Pacific affairs subcommittee, who visited Burma just a month before the cable was sent, has long argued that US sanctions give China a free hand in a strategically important part of the world.
美国参议员詹姆斯•韦伯(James Webb)一向认为，美国对缅甸的制裁，使得中国可以在一个具有重要战略意义的地区施展拳脚。韦伯是美国参议院外交关系委员会(Senate Foreign Relations Committee)东亚及太平洋事务小组委员会主席，他在电报发出前一个月访问了缅甸。

He is not alone. “By closing off economic and diplomatic engagement with the west, sanctions have pushed [Burma] economically and politically closer to China,” the International Crisis Group think-tank wrote in a report last month. The authors said that was “not a traditional or natural diplomatic posture” for Burma, which has always felt squeezed uncomfortably between India and China.
并非只有韦伯持上述看法。智库国际危机组织(International Crisis Group)在上月的一份报告中写道：“制裁使得缅甸与西方断绝了经济和外交上的联系，从而推动该国在经济和政治上更接近中国。”该报告称，这并非缅甸“传统或与生俱来的外交立场”——缅甸夹在中印两国之间总是感觉不自在。

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