经济学人：“咱们工人有力量！”文章原标题：崛起的中国工人力量

nicholasxw

中国工厂的工资水平和抗议行动皆呈上升之势，这对中国乃至世界经济都是件好事。
　　廉价劳动力成就了中国的经济奇迹。中国制造工人任劳任怨，工钱只是美国或德国同行的九牛一毛。全国近1.3亿人背井离乡，奔向新兴城镇。这些“漂一族”处在社会底层，据统计去年平均月薪为1348元人民币（约合197美元），仅相当于美国平均月收入的21%，但已比前年增加17%。金融危机后，中国经济的回暖带动工资上调。但在出口加工企业鳞次栉比的沿海城市，老板们总是缺人手，工人们也似乎缺乏耐心。此起彼伏的维权潮打破了“世界工厂”往日的平静。
　　2008年新颁布的《劳动法》和供不应求的劳动力市场，都增强了中国工人的底气。现在，工人难觅亦难留。全国农村尚有约7000万潜在外出务工者，另一些村民或选择在离家更近的工厂打工，毕竟内迁的企业日益增多。然而，即使在中国，这些强健的脊背、灵巧的双手也并非取之不尽，用之不竭。有关专家分析预测，明年起中国15至29岁年龄段的青壮人口将急剧下降。而这一群体的职业期望增长之快，远非提薪速度所能及。按中国人的说法，他们似乎不太愿意默默“吃苦”了。
　　为何撤走打手
　　事实上，中国工人绝不像漫画里经常表现得那么老实巴交。但近来的罢工事件着实反常：频率高（位于华南沿海的广东省在48天内发生了至少36起罢工），时间长，目标直指跨国公司。
　　中国***迅速平息了先前几起罢工事件，而这次的反应则要温和许多。本田罢工中，工会请来打手“教训”了部分罢工者，但很快被叫停。媒体对该事件进行了广泛报道，连官方喉舌都略有提及。罢工领袖迄今也未遭到任何报复。
　　这说明了三点问题。第一，中国不愿对知名外企的工人施以重罚，以免惊动国际媒体。第二，中国对外国投资者受到惊扰不再诚惶诚恐。的确，如果工人有不满情绪，那么针对外国老板总好过针对本国企业领导。中国在金融危机曾得出一正确结论：外资需要中国甚于中国需要外资。第三，也是最重要的一点，政府也许相信，工人们这种新的不合作倾向与其提出的“重新平衡”经济的目标颇为一致。的确，中国经济过于依赖投资，消费性开支对经济的贡献严重不足。其主要原因便是中国工人从国家收入里分到的蛋糕太小了：1990年为61%，2007年只有53%（这一数字在美国为近2/3）。只有将更多企业利润用于提高工人薪金，才能使工人更多享受自己的劳动果实。
　　中国工资水平的提高对西方同样也有好处。乍一听或许有点怪，因为发达国家已相当依赖中国的廉价劳工：据估计，中美贸易每年使单个美国家庭的荷包里多出1000美元，这得感谢商店里便宜的中国商品、较低的企业成本以及激烈的市场竞争。中国低廉的劳动力价格相当于为世界扩充了四分之一的劳动力，西方物价因此得以维持在较低水平，所以增加中国的劳动力成本便有输出通货膨胀的危险。另外，从全球经济的角度，和土地、石油一样，劳动力也是一种资源。正如世界经济不会因沙特油井枯竭而获益，中国劳动力储备的缩水也未见得是好事。
　　未来的全球消费者
　　然而，金融危机使情况发生了变化。通货紧缩现在比通货膨胀更具威胁。单是经济合作和发展组织(OECD)国家就有4700万工人失业，拖全球经济后腿的不再是劳动力问题。现在世界缺的是大方的消费者，而非勤恳的工人。中国加薪和美国一直要求的人民币升值一样，都能减少中国的贸易顺差，拉动消费。这对国外的公司和被他们解雇的员工都是好消息。中国消费只要增长20%，就能为美国增加250亿美元的出口和超过20万个工作岗位。
　　最终，中国新增的消费也有助于重新实现世界范围的充分就业。到那时，外资企业和消费者也许会怀念中国沿海领着低薪的工人，是他们同时保证了企业的高利润和商品的低价格。但中国内地或印度这样的国家同样也能找到廉价劳动力。无论如何，中国工资上调仅仅是故事的上半部分，另一半便是关于中国的生产力发展。1995年后的十年内，虽然中国劳动力成本增加了两倍，但同期的单个工人产出却翻了四倍。
　　面对日益枯竭的原始劳动力，中国要想再续辉煌，则必须加紧供应熟练工人。这需要一支稳定的工人队伍，他们愿意长时间追随雇主使后者的劳动力投资值回票价。为实现这一目的，政府又应进一步放松户籍管制，让农民工既能在城市里安居乐业，又能保住老家的一亩三分地。过去劳动力充足的时候，政府通过限制户口，一方面保证流动人口不对流入地政府造成过大压力，另一方面确保农民工即使遇到困难也能回乡继续种地。然而，随着劳动力市场收紧，要想保持经济的快速增长，中国必须使这些流动人口安顿下来。
　　剑桥大学已故经济学家琼·罗宾逊夫人曾经语出惊人：“受资本家剥削的痛苦完全比不上无处受剥削的痛苦。”此番妙语为罗宾逊夫人1962年对当时东南亚失业状况的有感而发。打那时起，资本家便肆无忌惮地“剥削”该地区及其北部邻国，并大获其利。现在，该是由资本家为工人们破费的时候了。

英文原文：


World economy
The rising power of the Chinese worker
In China's factories, pay and protest are on the rise. That is good for China, and for the world economy
Jul 29th 2010

CHEAP labour has built China's economic miracle. Its manufacturing workers toil for a small fraction of the cost of their American or German competitors. At the bottom of the heap, a "floating population" of about 130m migrants work in China's boomtowns, taking home 1,348 yuan a month on average last year. That is a mere $197, little more than one-twentieth of the average monthly wage in America. But it is 17% more than the year before. As China's economy has bounced back, wages have followed suit. On the coasts, where its exporting factories are clustered, bosses are short of workers, and workers short of patience. A spate of strikes has thrown a spanner into the workshop of the world.
The hands of China's workers have been strengthened by a new labour law, introduced in 2008, and by the more fundamental laws of demand and supply (see article). Workers are becoming harder to find and to keep. The country's villages still contain perhaps 70m potential migrants. Other rural folk might be willing to work closer to home in the growing number of factories moving inland. But the supply of strong backs and nimble fingers is not infinite, even in China. The number of 15- to 29-year-olds will fall sharply from next year. And although their wages are increasing, their aspirations are rising even faster. They seem less willing to "eat bitterness", as the Chinese put it, without complaint.
Why the goons were called off
In truth, Chinese workers were never as docile as the popular caricature suggested. But the recent strikes have been unusual in their frequency (Guangdong province on China's south coast suffered at least 36 strikes in the space of 48 days), their longevity and their targets: foreign multinationals.
China's ruling Communist Party has swiftly quashed previous bouts of labour unrest. This one drew a more relaxed reaction. Goons from the government-controlled trade union roughed up some Honda strikers, but they were quickly called off. The strikes were widely, if briefly, covered in the state-supervised press. And the ringleaders have not so far heard any midnight knocks at the door.
This suggests three things. First, China is reluctant to get heavy-handed with workers in big-brand firms that attract global media attention. But, second, China is becoming more relaxed about spooking foreign investors. Indeed, if workers are upset, better that they blame foreign bosses than local ones. In the wake of the financial crisis, the party has concluded, correctly, that foreign investors need China more than it needs them. Third, and most important, the government may believe that the new bolshiness of its workers is in keeping with its professed aim of "rebalancing" the economy. And it would be right. China's economy relies too much on investment and too little on consumer spending. That is mostly because workers get such a small slice of the national cake: 53% in 2007, down from 61% in 1990 (and compared with about two-thirds in America). Letting wages rise at the expense of profits would allow workers to enjoy more of the fruits of their labour.
Higher Chinese wages would also be good for the West. This may seem odd, given how much the rich world has come to rely on cheap Chinese labour: by one estimate, trade with China has added $1,000 a year to the pockets of every American household, thanks to cheaper goods in the country's stores, cheaper inputs for its businesses and stiffer competition in its markets. Just as expanding the global labour force by a quarter through the addition of cheap Chinese workers helped to keep prices down in the West, so higher Chinese wages might start to export inflation. Furthermore, from the point of view of the global economy, labour is a resource, like land or oil. It would not normally benefit from the dwindling of China's reserves of labour any more than from the drying up of Saudi wells.

Tomorrow's global consumers
But in the wake of the financial crisis, things are different. Deflation is now a bigger threat than inflation. And with 47m workers unemployed in the OECD alone, labour is not holding back the global economy. What the world lacks is willing customers, not willing workers. Higher Chinese wages will have a similar effect to the stronger exchange rate that America has been calling for, shrinking China's trade surplus and boosting its spending. This will help foreign companies and the workers they have idled. A 20% rise in Chinese consumption might well lead to an extra $25 billion of American exports. That could create over 200,000 American jobs.
Eventually, this extra spending will help the world economy return to full employment. At that point, foreign companies and consumers may miss China's cheap coastal workers, who kept profits high and prices low. But there will still be cheap labour to be found inland and in places like India. And Chinese wages were anyway only half the story. The other half was Chinese productivity. Chinese labour costs tripled in the decade after 1995, but output per worker quintupled.
To repeat that feat, as it runs dry of crude labour, China will have to increase its supply of skilled workers. That will require a stable workforce, which stays with its employers long enough to be worth investing in. For that the government will need to relax further its system of internal passports, or hukou, which prevent migrant workers from settling formally in the city without losing their family plot back home. When labour was abundant, it suited the government to have a floating population that made few demands on urban authorities and drifted back to the family farm whenever hardship beckoned. But to maintain fast growth as the labour market tightens, China's floating population will have to drop anchor.
As the late Joan Robinson, a Cambridge economist, once wrote, "the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all". Her quip, written in 1962, was inspired by underemployment in South-East Asia. Since then, capital has busily "exploited" workers in that region and its giant northern neighbour, much to their benefit. Now it is time for capital to invest in them.
(转载本文请注明“中国选举与治理网”首发)