预测：油价明年小幅涨至每桶85美元

飞雪寒冰

Oil prices will rise modestly towards $85 a barrel next year despite market expectations that they will return to above $100 a barrel, the world’s largest oil trading house has forecast.
全球最大的石油贸易公司预测，油价明年将温和上涨，趋近每桶85美元，尽管市场预期油价将再次突破每桶100美元。

Ian Taylor, chief executive of Switzerland-based Vitol, said a price band between $70 and $85 a barrel was “widely viewed as meeting producers’ needs while being simultaneously ‘acceptable’ to consumers”.
总部位于瑞士的维多(Vitol)的首席执行官伊恩•泰勒(Ian Taylor)表示，每桶70至85美元的价格区间“被普遍视为既能满足生产方的需求，同时又对消费方‘可以接受’”。

飞雪寒冰

“We see prices progressing to the higher end of this range over 2011,” he writes in today’s Financial Times. But he warned that surpluses in production and refining capacity will keep prices “in a relatively narrow band” next year. “The concept of a price ceiling exists today in a way that it simply didn’t when prices rose to $150 in the middle of 2008.”
“我们预测，油价在2011年期间将趋近这一区间的高端，”泰勒在今日的英国《金融时报》撰文表示。但他警告称，冗余的生产和提炼产能明年将使油价保持在“一个相对狭窄的区间”。“当今存在的价格上限概念，不是2008年年中价格涨至150美元时可比的。”

Vitol is largely unknown outside the energy industry, yet it trades more than 5m barrels a day of oil – equivalent to the daily imports of Germany, France and Italy combined. Its outlook is important because it is at the centre of global flows, and its wide business relationships help it anticipate price cycles.
维多公司在能源行业以外基本上鲜为人知，然而该公司每日交易逾500万桶石油，相当于德国、法国和意大利每日进口量之和。维多的预测之所以重要，是因为该公司置身于全球石油贸易流动的中心，而且可借助庞大的业务人脉预见价格周期。

飞雪寒冰

Together with traders Glencore, Trafigura, Gunvor and Mercuria and oil companies such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Total, Vitol dominates global energy trading. Its moderate forecast comes as Opec is likely to leave its production levels unchanged when it meets in Vienna on Thursday.
与交易公司嘉能可(Glencore)、Trafigura、Gunvor和Mercuria，以及石油公司英国石油(BP)、荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)和道达尔(Total)一起，维多主导着全球能源交易。该公司作出温和的油价预测之际，欧佩克(Opec)在周四的维也纳会议上可能会维持目前的产量水平不变。

Wilson Pastor-Morris, the Ecuadorean natural resources minister who will chair the Opec meeting, said there was a “consensus” behind output levels. “The quotas will be maintained. No changes are foreseen,” he said, adding Opec was “happy” with current prices.
将主持本次欧佩克会议的厄瓜多尔自然资源部长威尔森•帕斯托-莫里斯(Wilson Pastor-Morris)表示，对于目前的产量水平存在着“共识”。“配额将维持不变。预期不会有任何变动，”他表示，并补充说，欧佩克对目前的油价感到“满意”。

严劣尾

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