全球能源业面临洗牌

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Next month the world will mark the 25th anniversary of Chernobyl, the nuclear industry’s worst disaster. The catastrophic accident halted the development of new reactors in much of the world for more than two decades.
下月，世界将迎来史上最重大核灾难“切尔诺贝利核事故”25周年纪念日。二十多年来，这场巨灾中断了世界上大部分地区新反应堆的发展。

Over the past 10 days, the world’s eyes have been watching another nuclear crisis unfold, this one not in eastern Europe but in Japan.
过去10天，全世界的目光都在注视着另一场核危机的上演。这次的事发地不在东欧，而是在日本。

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Experts say the events are not on the same level as those in Chernobyl, but the ramifications for the nuclear industry and the global energy landscape will be far-reaching.
专家们表示，本次核危机与切尔诺贝利事故不是一个级别的，但它将对核工业及全球能源格局的影响将是深远的。

Events in the Middle East, in particular Libya, are also affecting the industry.
中东，尤其是利比亚的局势也在影响着全球能源业。

Governments around the world are reviewing their plans for nuclear power, most notably in China, which had been spearheading a revival that had gathered pace over the past decade.
目前世界各地的政府都在重新审视自身的核电发展计划，特别是在近十年核能复兴中充当先锋的中国。

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Faced with ambitious climate change targets, many governments, especially in the developed world, had embraced low-carbon atomic power as a key element in any future energy mix.
许多政府，尤其是发达国家的政府，都制定了雄心勃勃的气候变化目标，他们原本都把低碳的原子能视作未来能源组成中的一个关键成分。

That renaissance is now stuck in its tracks, even if only temporarily, as governments review the safety of their reactors.
目前，随着各国政府开始评估本国反应堆的安全性，核电复兴步伐陷入了停滞，即便这只是暂时的。

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While the nuclear industry faces, at best, substantial delays to its plans as well as the burden of much higher costs, there are also likely to be repercussions for other forms of generation such as renewables and gas.
往好了说，核工业将面临各项计划明显推迟、相关成本大幅上升的局面。但可再生能源和天然气等其他发电形式也有可能受到波及。

Both will be required to make up any shortfall resulting from any material delays to new reactors.
由于新反应堆遭到实质耽搁而产生的供给缺口，需要由可再生能源和天然气来填补。

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Nobuo Tanaka, the chief executive of the International Energy Agency, the rich nations’ energy watchdog, warned last week that the role of nuclear power in global energy supply may be less than previously forecast, following the events in Japan.
富国能源监督机构——国际原子能机构(IEA)总干事田中伸男(Nobuo Tanaka)上周警告，在日本发生核泄漏事故后，核电在全球能源供给中发挥的作用可能会小于以前的预测。

“Building nuclear power or expanding nuclear power may mean more costs or more delay,” he said. “That means the nuclear option may not play as big a role as we predicted.”
“兴建或扩建核电站可能需要更大成本，或者拖延得更久。这意味着核能可能不会发挥出像我们预期的那么大的作用。”

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The IEA last year forecast that demand for nuclear energy would rise from 6 per cent in 2008 to 8 per cent in 2035.
IEA去年预测，到2035年，核能在全球能源中的比重将从2008年的6%上升到8%。

The short-term effect has already been felt by the energy markets, with prices for oil and gas soaring as Japan has been forced to import fossil fuels to replace the lost nuclear output.
短期影响已经在能源市场上显现。由于核能发电量下降，日本被迫增加化石燃料的进口。受此影响，石油和天然气价格大幅飙升。

The cost of gas and coal, the two main alternative commodities for electricity generation, have already risen sharply.
天然气和煤碳这两种用于发电的主要大宗商品价格均已大幅上涨。

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Royal Dutch Shell, Europe’s second-largest oil and gas company, said last week it was in talks with Japan to provide it with additional cargoes of liquefied natural gas.
欧洲第二大石油天然气公司——荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)上周宣布，该公司正与日方洽谈为该国增加液化天然气供应的事宜。

“Non-fossil fuels have been hit with two body blows: this nuclear disaster and the price of natural gas, which is completely eroding the economic competitiveness of alternatives,” says Robin West, chairman of PFC Energy, a consultancy.
咨询机构PFC Energy的董事长罗宾•韦斯特(Robin West)表示：“非化石燃料受到两记重击：这场核灾难和天然气的价格。天然气正彻底削弱替代能源的经济竞争力。”

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“A third blow is the fact that governments will find it difficult to subsidise alternatives or force high feed-in tariffs, given the new economic realities. Gas is a big winner, and the life of coal will be extended,” he predicts.
“第三个打击是，考虑到新的经济现实，各国政府将很难为替代能源提供补贴，或收取较高的上网电价。天然气将成为大赢家，煤矿的寿命将得到延长。”

Countries rich in gas, such as Qatar, where Shell, for example, is building mammoth LNG projects, are seen as key beneficiaries from a stronger demand for gas. Australia, where several big LNG projects are under construction, could be a winner in the longer-term, if nuclear programmes are severely delayed, said one oil and gas analyst. BG Group last October announced plans for a $15bn LNG project in Queensland.
人们认为，天然气储量丰富的国家将成为天然气需求上升的主要受益者，例如卡塔尔。目前壳牌正在卡塔尔建设若干个巨型液化天然气项目。一位油气行业分析师表示，从长远来看，倘若核计划耽搁严重，目前正在建设几个大型液化天然气项目的澳大利亚有可能成为赢家。去年10月，BG Group宣布计划在昆士兰建设一个150亿美元的液化天然气项目。

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For the world’s international oil and gas groups all this is good news. Many of them are sitting on strong balance sheets and growing cash piles, underpinned by the current high oil price environment.
对跨国油气集团来说，所有这些都是好消息。受益于当前的高油价环境，许多跨国油气集团都坐拥强健的资产负债表和日益充实的资金。

Yet the challenge remains of delivering sustainable growth in exploration and production – and proving this to the market – and that means getting access to new reserves.
然而，要实现勘探与生产的可持续发展——并向市场证明这一点，挑战依然存在，而这意味着要获得新的储量。

The supermajors have all announced increases in their exploration budgets in recent months, but analysts also expect more deals this year.
最近几个月，各超级巨头均宣布将增加勘探预算，但分析师们认为今年也会出现更多并购交易。

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Bob Dudley, chief executive of BP, has led the way, striking two strategic alliances in quick succession since the start of the year, as he tries to rebuild the UK oil group after last year’s Gulf of Mexico accident.
英国石油(BP)首席执行官鲍勃•达德利(Bob Dudley)一马当先，从年初以来接连达成了两项战略性合作协议。经过去年的墨西哥湾事故后，达德利试图重振这家英国石油集团。

Both deals give BP access to potentially big reserves: a $16bn share swap with Rosneft, the Russian oil champion, coupled with an alliance to explore in the oil-rich seas of the Arctic; and a $7.2bn thrust into India by taking 30 per cent stakes in natural gas blocks controlled by Reliance Industries.
这两笔交易都有望让BP获得庞大的储量。其中一项交易是与俄罗斯石油巨头Rosneft达成的160亿美元换股协议，两家公司还将联袂勘探北极石油储量丰富的的海域。另一项交易是在印度砸下72亿美元资金，换取信实工业(Reliance Industries)控制的天然气区块30%的权益。

Both deals hold out the potential for huge reserves and both the Russian Arctic and the deep water off the east coast of India could one day become an important contributor to BP’s profits.
两项交易都有望带来巨大储量，俄罗斯北极海域和印度东海岸深水区域有朝一日都有可能成为BP的重要盈利来源。