标题: 铁矿石狂欢未已 [打印本页] 作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-9-2 15:34 标题: 铁矿石狂欢未已 If the global economy is slowing, iron ore miners have not noticed. The producers of the steelmaking commodity are partying away. The Platts index-based price for the grade of ore used as a reference by the likes of Vale and Rio Tinto for fourth-quarter contracts is $175.63 per tonne, nary a percentage point below that for the third quarter. Miners’ move from an annual to a quarterly pricing policy has helped them to lock in a 30 per cent spot price rise over the past year. The lack of price weakness reflects the sources of demand: about three-quarters from emerging markets, mostly China. Chinese demand for iron ore will still increase smartly even if the growth rate of gross domestic product slows to 7 per cent.
如果说全球经济增长正在放缓，铁矿石供应商们并不曾注意到。这种用于钢材生产的大宗商品的供应商正忙着狂欢。对于淡水河谷(Vale)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等矿商用作参照的那种品级的铁矿石，第四季度普氏指数价格(Platts index-based price)为每吨175.63美元，仅比第三季度下降不到1%。在过去一年中，由于定价政策由年度定价变成了季度定价，矿商们已将现货价格涨幅中的30%收入囊中。价格持续坚挺，是对需求源头的反映：约四分之三需求来自于新兴市场，其中绝大部分来自中国。即便中国的GDP增长率降至7%，它对铁矿石的需求增长仍将相当可观。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-9-2 15:35
The miners – Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale – are bullish about the outlook. Rio, mostly an iron ore miner, predicts that the world will need an extra 100m tonnes a year for each of the next eight years – requiring a near doubling in production from 2010.
英美资源公司(Anglo American)、必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓和淡水河谷等矿商对前景十分看好。主营铁矿石的力拓预测，在未来8年间，全球铁矿石需求量将以每年1亿吨的速度递增，这意味着8年后的产量几乎要在2010年的基础上翻番。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-9-2 15:37
To meet the expected demand, miners are investing. And why not? Current iron ore prices are attractive. When Anglo American’s Minas-Rio project in Brazil starts to ship in two years, the cash cost of landing a tonne of ore in China could be just $43. The project pipeline may indicate that overcapacity looms: more than 1.5bn tonnes of capacity over four years, Citi notes. Rio, for example, is expanding in Western Australia by almost 50 per cent and has invested with Chinalco in Guinea. BHP and Fortescue Metals are also expanding.
为满足预计出现的需求，矿商们正在追加投资。为什么不呢？当前的铁矿石价格颇具吸引力。等两年后英美资源公司在巴西的Minas-Rio项目开始供货后，一吨铁矿石在中国的到港价格将降到仅43美元。这个筹备中的项目，可能意味着产能过剩的危险正隐隐逼近：花旗银行(Citi)指出，4年间产能超过15亿吨。比如说，力拓正在西澳大利亚州扩充产能，增幅约为50%，并与中铝(Chinalco)共同投资于几内亚。必和必拓和Fortescue Metals也在扩充产能。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-9-2 15:38
But financing, permitting and other project delays should keep supply from rising too fast. Although the iron ore forward curve points to lower pricing in the next two years, the roll-out of 10m more units in China’s social housing programme alone creates annual demand for 52m tonnes of ore, Credit Suisse notes. The party still has legs.
