标题: 全球能源业面临洗牌 [打印本页] 作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:49 标题: 全球能源业面临洗牌 Next month the world will mark the 25th anniversary of Chernobyl, the nuclear industry’s worst disaster. The catastrophic accident halted the development of new reactors in much of the world for more than two decades.
下月，世界将迎来史上最重大核灾难“切尔诺贝利核事故”25周年纪念日。二十多年来，这场巨灾中断了世界上大部分地区新反应堆的发展。
Over the past 10 days, the world’s eyes have been watching another nuclear crisis unfold, this one not in eastern Europe but in Japan.
过去10天，全世界的目光都在注视着另一场核危机的上演。这次的事发地不在东欧，而是在日本。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:49
Experts say the events are not on the same level as those in Chernobyl, but the ramifications for the nuclear industry and the global energy landscape will be far-reaching.
专家们表示，本次核危机与切尔诺贝利事故不是一个级别的，但它将对核工业及全球能源格局的影响将是深远的。
Events in the Middle East, in particular Libya, are also affecting the industry.
中东，尤其是利比亚的局势也在影响着全球能源业。
Governments around the world are reviewing their plans for nuclear power, most notably in China, which had been spearheading a revival that had gathered pace over the past decade.
目前世界各地的政府都在重新审视自身的核电发展计划，特别是在近十年核能复兴中充当先锋的中国。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:50
Faced with ambitious climate change targets, many governments, especially in the developed world, had embraced low-carbon atomic power as a key element in any future energy mix.
许多政府，尤其是发达国家的政府，都制定了雄心勃勃的气候变化目标，他们原本都把低碳的原子能视作未来能源组成中的一个关键成分。
That renaissance is now stuck in its tracks, even if only temporarily, as governments review the safety of their reactors.
目前，随着各国政府开始评估本国反应堆的安全性，核电复兴步伐陷入了停滞，即便这只是暂时的。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:50
While the nuclear industry faces, at best, substantial delays to its plans as well as the burden of much higher costs, there are also likely to be repercussions for other forms of generation such as renewables and gas.
往好了说，核工业将面临各项计划明显推迟、相关成本大幅上升的局面。但可再生能源和天然气等其他发电形式也有可能受到波及。
Both will be required to make up any shortfall resulting from any material delays to new reactors.
由于新反应堆遭到实质耽搁而产生的供给缺口，需要由可再生能源和天然气来填补。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:51
Nobuo Tanaka, the chief executive of the International Energy Agency, the rich nations’ energy watchdog, warned last week that the role of nuclear power in global energy supply may be less than previously forecast, following the events in Japan.
富国能源监督机构——国际原子能机构(IEA)总干事田中伸男(Nobuo Tanaka)上周警告，在日本发生核泄漏事故后，核电在全球能源供给中发挥的作用可能会小于以前的预测。
“Building nuclear power or expanding nuclear power may mean more costs or more delay,” he said. “That means the nuclear option may not play as big a role as we predicted.”
“兴建或扩建核电站可能需要更大成本，或者拖延得更久。这意味着核能可能不会发挥出像我们预期的那么大的作用。”作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:52
The IEA last year forecast that demand for nuclear energy would rise from 6 per cent in 2008 to 8 per cent in 2035.
IEA去年预测，到2035年，核能在全球能源中的比重将从2008年的6%上升到8%。
The short-term effect has already been felt by the energy markets, with prices for oil and gas soaring as Japan has been forced to import fossil fuels to replace the lost nuclear output.
短期影响已经在能源市场上显现。由于核能发电量下降，日本被迫增加化石燃料的进口。受此影响，石油和天然气价格大幅飙升。
The cost of gas and coal, the two main alternative commodities for electricity generation, have already risen sharply.
天然气和煤碳这两种用于发电的主要大宗商品价格均已大幅上涨。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:52
Royal Dutch Shell, Europe’s second-largest oil and gas company, said last week it was in talks with Japan to provide it with additional cargoes of liquefied natural gas.
欧洲第二大石油天然气公司——荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)上周宣布，该公司正与日方洽谈为该国增加液化天然气供应的事宜。
“Non-fossil fuels have been hit with two body blows: this nuclear disaster and the price of natural gas, which is completely eroding the economic competitiveness of alternatives,” says Robin West, chairman of PFC Energy, a consultancy.
咨询机构PFC Energy的董事长罗宾•韦斯特(Robin West)表示：“非化石燃料受到两记重击：这场核灾难和天然气的价格。天然气正彻底削弱替代能源的经济竞争力。”作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:52
“A third blow is the fact that governments will find it difficult to subsidise alternatives or force high feed-in tariffs, given the new economic realities. Gas is a big winner, and the life of coal will be extended,” he predicts.
“第三个打击是，考虑到新的经济现实，各国政府将很难为替代能源提供补贴，或收取较高的上网电价。天然气将成为大赢家，煤矿的寿命将得到延长。”
Countries rich in gas, such as Qatar, where Shell, for example, is building mammoth LNG projects, are seen as key beneficiaries from a stronger demand for gas. Australia, where several big LNG projects are under construction, could be a winner in the longer-term, if nuclear programmes are severely delayed, said one oil and gas analyst. BG Group last October announced plans for a $15bn LNG project in Queensland.
人们认为，天然气储量丰富的国家将成为天然气需求上升的主要受益者，例如卡塔尔。目前壳牌正在卡塔尔建设若干个巨型液化天然气项目。一位油气行业分析师表示，从长远来看，倘若核计划耽搁严重，目前正在建设几个大型液化天然气项目的澳大利亚有可能成为赢家。去年10月，BG Group宣布计划在昆士兰建设一个150亿美元的液化天然气项目。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:52
For the world’s international oil and gas groups all this is good news. Many of them are sitting on strong balance sheets and growing cash piles, underpinned by the current high oil price environment.
对跨国油气集团来说，所有这些都是好消息。受益于当前的高油价环境，许多跨国油气集团都坐拥强健的资产负债表和日益充实的资金。
Yet the challenge remains of delivering sustainable growth in exploration and production – and proving this to the market – and that means getting access to new reserves.
然而，要实现勘探与生产的可持续发展——并向市场证明这一点，挑战依然存在，而这意味着要获得新的储量。
The supermajors have all announced increases in their exploration budgets in recent months, but analysts also expect more deals this year.
最近几个月，各超级巨头均宣布将增加勘探预算，但分析师们认为今年也会出现更多并购交易。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:53
Bob Dudley, chief executive of BP, has led the way, striking two strategic alliances in quick succession since the start of the year, as he tries to rebuild the UK oil group after last year’s Gulf of Mexico accident.
英国石油(BP)首席执行官鲍勃•达德利(Bob Dudley)一马当先，从年初以来接连达成了两项战略性合作协议。经过去年的墨西哥湾事故后，达德利试图重振这家英国石油集团。
Both deals give BP access to potentially big reserves: a $16bn share swap with Rosneft, the Russian oil champion, coupled with an alliance to explore in the oil-rich seas of the Arctic; and a $7.2bn thrust into India by taking 30 per cent stakes in natural gas blocks controlled by Reliance Industries.
这两笔交易都有望让BP获得庞大的储量。其中一项交易是与俄罗斯石油巨头Rosneft达成的160亿美元换股协议，两家公司还将联袂勘探北极石油储量丰富的的海域。另一项交易是在印度砸下72亿美元资金，换取信实工业(Reliance Industries)控制的天然气区块30%的权益。
Both deals hold out the potential for huge reserves and both the Russian Arctic and the deep water off the east coast of India could one day become an important contributor to BP’s profits.
两项交易都有望带来巨大储量，俄罗斯北极海域和印度东海岸深水区域有朝一日都有可能成为BP的重要盈利来源。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:53
Both also underline the gradual shift of power between the international oil companies and their national oil company (NOC) peers, whose countries hold the majority of the world’s reserves.
这两项交易也突显出跨国石油公司与持有全球绝大多数储量的国家国有石油公司之间力量对比的渐变。
Most of the supermajors, have recently announced some form of alliance with a national oil company, although BP is so far the only one to have agreed a substantial share swap.
大多数超级巨头近期均与国有石油公司达成了某种形式的合作，只不过BP目前是唯一一家达成大规模换股交易的。
Philip Lambert of Lambert Energy Advisory, which advised BP on the Rosneft transaction, told the Financial Times in January, when the deal was announced, that partnerships were the way forward.
Lambert能源咨询公司在BP与Rosneft换股交易中为BP提供建议。今年1月份这笔交易宣布之时，该公司的菲利普•兰伯特(Philip Lambert)向英国《金融时报》表示，双方的合作方式开启了未来前进的道路。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:53
“National oil companies still want the technology of the international majors, but by itself this is not sufficient to get sustainable access. It needs to be a proper partnership,” he said.
兰伯特表示：“国有石油公司仍想获得跨国公司的技术，但这本身并不足以保证能够获得巨额储量。双方应该建立一种恰当的合作关系。”
Many national oil companies (NOCs), notably China’s, are also becoming an increasing force to be reckoned with outside their own countries. A number of Chinese companies, including PetroChina, have announced overseas acquisitions in recent months, several of them focused on unconventional shale gas.
在本国以外，许多国有石油公司也正成为一股日益壮大、不容小觑的力量，尤其是中国的国有石油公司。近几个月来，包括中石油(PetroChina)在内的多家中国石油公司均宣布了海外收购消息，其中一些交易瞄准的是非常规的页岩气。
“The NOCs accounted for 20 per cent of the mergers and acquisitions market in upstream oil and gas last year,” said Robert Plummer, senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie, the oil and gas consultancy. “Ten years ago, they barely participated on the market.”
油气咨询机构Wood Mackenzie的高级分析师罗伯特•普拉默(Robert Plummer)表示：“去年上游油气行业的并购活动中，有20%来自国有石油公司，而10年前他们基本上不涉足这个并购市场。”作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:53
According to Mr Plummer, some of the NOCs are “now investing capital in the upstream oil and gas sector at a rate above that of the majors, especially when considered on investment per barrel produced”.
普拉默表示，一些国有石油公司“目前在上游油气行业的投资力度比跨国石油巨头还大，从投资与产量比率来看尤其如此”。
Most analysts argue that, for now, both sides need each other, but no one is ruling out a time when the NOCs may hold the upper hand.
大多数分析师认为，眼下双方彼此需要，但没人排除有朝一日国有石油公司有可能占据上风。
There are also other risks. The unrest in the Middle East, in Egypt, and Libya in particular, has underlined the scale of the political risk companies face in their search for more reserves.
此外还存在其他风险。中东动荡，尤其是埃及和利比亚的局势，突显出企业在寻找更多储量过程中面临的严峻政治风险。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:53
BP had been preparing to drill in the deepwater off Libya before the recent crisis erupted, but those plans are now on hold. Shell has had to stop its exploration activities in Libya for the time being.
在近期的危机爆发前，BP一直准备在利比亚深海水域进行钻探，但如今所有计划都已经搁置。壳牌眼下也不得不暂停在利比亚的勘探活动。
Peter Voser, chief executive of Shell, last week said it was too early to predict the impact of events in the Middle East and in Japan, both for the company and the rest of the industry.
壳牌首席执行官彼得•沃瑟(Peter Voser)上周表示，不管是对壳牌还是对业内其他公司来说，目前要判断中东和日本事件的影响都为时过早。作者: 飞雪寒冰 时间: 2011-3-25 16:53
However, he conceded that they were “a clear reminder” that such developments can affect the oil markets.
不过他承认，近期事态“明白无误地表明”，这类事件会影响到石油市场。
“We are living in a very interdependent world.”
“我们生活在一个高度相互依存的世界里。”作者: 戴匀沐 时间: 2011-5-14 00:36
好东西，下来用用.顶起来.
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